cognition and chance the psychology of probabilistic reasoning

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Cognition And Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
ISBN : 9781135614614
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87. 1 MB
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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Handbook Of Applied Cognition

Author : Francis T. Durso
ISBN : 9780470059630
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 60. 40 MB
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Written by a team of leading international researchers under the guidance of Frank Durso, the second edition of the Handbook of Applied Cognition brings together the latest research into this challenging and important field, and is presented across thirty stimulating and accessible chapters. Stewarded by experiences editors from around the globe, the handbook has been fully updated with eleven new chapters covering materials that focus on the topics critical to understanding human mental functions in complex environments. It is an essential single-source reference for researchers, cognitive engineers and applied cognitive psychologists, as well as advanced students in the flourishing field of applied cognition.

Bayesian Rationality

Author : Mike Oaksford
ISBN : 0198524498
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 52. 39 MB
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For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Technometrics

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015065057591
Genre : Experimental design
File Size : 65. 18 MB
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Inductive Reasoning

Author : Aidan Feeney
ISBN : 9781139465915
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 66. 50 MB
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Without inductive reasoning, we couldn't generalize from one instance to another, derive scientific hypotheses, or predict that the sun will rise again tomorrow morning. Despite the widespread nature of inductive reasoning, books on this topic are rare. Indeed, this is the first book on the psychology of inductive reasoning in twenty years. The chapters survey recent advances in the study of inductive reasoning and address questions about how it develops, the role of knowledge in induction, how best to model people's reasoning, and how induction relates to other forms of thinking. Written by experts in philosophy, developmental science, cognitive psychology, and computational modeling, the contributions here will be of interest to a general cognitive science audience as well as to those with a more specialized interest in the study of thinking.

Mathematical Reasoning

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
ISBN : 1848728271
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 21 MB
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The development of mathematical competence -- both by humans as a species over millennia and by individuals over their lifetimes -- is a fascinating aspect of human cognition. This book explores when and why the rudiments of mathematical capability first appeared among human beings, what its fundamental concepts are, and how and why it has grown into the richly branching complex of specialties that it is today. It discusses whether the âe~truthsâe(tm) of mathematics are discoveries or inventions, and what prompts the emergence of concepts that appear to be descriptive of nothing in human experience. Also covered is the role of esthetics in mathematics: What exactly are mathematicians seeing when they describe a mathematical entity as âe~beautifulâe(tm)? There is discussion of whether mathematical disability is distinguishable from a general cognitive deficit and whether the potential for mathematical reasoning is best developed through instruction. This volume is unique in the vast range of psychological questions it covers, as revealed in the work habits and products of numerous mathematicians. It provides fascinating reading for researchers and students with an interest in cognition in general and mathematical cognition in particular. Instructors of mathematics will also find the bookâe(tm)s insights illuminating.

Probabilistic Thinking

Author : Egan J Chernoff
ISBN : 9789400771550
Genre : Education
File Size : 57. 57 MB
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This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

Decision Making And Rationality In The Modern World

Author : Keith E. Stanovich
ISBN : 0195328124
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 41. 91 MB
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In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment. Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.

Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
ISBN : 9781118650127
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 66. 5 MB
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Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Quantum Models Of Cognition And Decision

Author : Jerome R. Busemeyer
ISBN : 9781139536486
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 50. 51 MB
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Much of our understanding of human thinking is based on probabilistic models. This innovative book by Jerome R. Busemeyer and Peter D. Bruza argues that, actually, the underlying mathematical structures from quantum theory provide a much better account of human thinking than traditional models. They introduce the foundations for modeling probabilistic-dynamic systems using two aspects of quantum theory. The first, 'contextuality', is a way to understand interference effects found with inferences and decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The second, 'quantum entanglement', allows cognitive phenomena to be modeled in non-reductionist ways. Employing these principles drawn from quantum theory allows us to view human cognition and decision in a totally new light. Introducing the basic principles in an easy-to-follow way, this book does not assume a physics background or a quantum brain and comes complete with a tutorial and fully worked-out applications in important areas of cognition and decision.

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