cognition and chance the psychology of probabilistic reasoning

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Cognition And Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
ISBN : 9781135614614
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 60. 57 MB
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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Handbook Of Applied Cognition

Author : Francis T. Durso
ISBN : 9780470059630
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 26. 42 MB
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Written by a team of leading international researchers under the guidance of Frank Durso, the second edition of the Handbook of Applied Cognition brings together the latest research into this challenging and important field, and is presented across thirty stimulating and accessible chapters. Stewarded by experiences editors from around the globe, the handbook has been fully updated with eleven new chapters covering materials that focus on the topics critical to understanding human mental functions in complex environments. It is an essential single-source reference for researchers, cognitive engineers and applied cognitive psychologists, as well as advanced students in the flourishing field of applied cognition.


Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015065057591
Genre : Experimental design
File Size : 27. 4 MB
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Inductive Reasoning

Author : Aidan Feeney
ISBN : 9781139465915
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 85. 36 MB
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Without inductive reasoning, we couldn't generalize from one instance to another, derive scientific hypotheses, or predict that the sun will rise again tomorrow morning. Despite the widespread nature of inductive reasoning, books on this topic are rare. Indeed, this is the first book on the psychology of inductive reasoning in twenty years. The chapters survey recent advances in the study of inductive reasoning and address questions about how it develops, the role of knowledge in induction, how best to model people's reasoning, and how induction relates to other forms of thinking. Written by experts in philosophy, developmental science, cognitive psychology, and computational modeling, the contributions here will be of interest to a general cognitive science audience as well as to those with a more specialized interest in the study of thinking.

Bios Instant Notes In Cognitive Psychology

Author : Jackie Andrade
ISBN : 0203488296
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 81. 14 MB
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Instant Notes in Cognitive Psychology is a concise summary of the key theoretical and empirical topics in cognitive psychology, providing easy access to the core information in the field. The book can serve as a core text, supplemented by readings in the original literature, as a reference guide for students and lecturers alike, or as an ideal revision guide prior to exams. Instant Notes in Cognitive Psychology is intended primarily for students taking a first course in the subject, but can also be used as an introduction to the field for undergraduates and graduates from other subject areas.

Decision Making And Rationality In The Modern World

Author : Keith E. Stanovich
ISBN : 0195328124
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 58. 37 MB
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In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment. Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.

The Mit Encyclopedia Of The Cognitive Sciences

Author : Robert Andrew Wilson
ISBN : 0262731444
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 35. 72 MB
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A landmark, comprehensive reference work that represents the methodological and theoretical diversity of this changing field.

The Handbook Of School Psychology

Author : Cecil R. Reynolds
ISBN : 0471707473
Genre : Education
File Size : 54. 77 MB
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As the standard reference in the field, this edited handbook focuses on how a school psychologist can operate and create change within the educational system instead of focusing solely on the diagnosis and treatment of an individual. Chapters have been updated and revised to provide a contemporary view of the field.

Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why

Author : Gorka Navarrete
ISBN : 9782889197453
Genre :
File Size : 61. 7 MB
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We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.


Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
ISBN : 9783641119904
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 71. 77 MB
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Der neue Bestseller von Gerd Gigerenzer Erinnern wir uns an die weltweite Angst vor der Schweinegrippe, als Experten eine nie dagewesene Pandemie prognostizierten und Impfstoff für Millionen produziert wurde, der später still und heimlich entsorgt werden musste. Für Gerd Gigerenzer ist dies nur ein Beleg unseres irrationalen Umgangs mit Risiken. Und das gilt für Experten ebenso wie für Laien. An Beispielen aus Medizin, Rechtswesen und Finanzwelt erläutert er, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert, was sie mit unseren entwicklungsgeschichtlich alten Hirnstrukturen zu tun hat und welche Gefahren damit einhergehen. Dabei analysiert er die ungute Rolle von irreführenden Informationen, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden. Doch Risiken und Ungewissheiten richtig einzuschätzen kann und sollte jeder lernen. Diese Risikoschulung erprobt Gigerenzer seit vielen Jahren mit verblüffenden Ergebnissen. Sein Fazit: Schon Kinder können lernen, mit Risiken realistisch umzugehen und sich gegen Panikmache wie Verharmlosung zu immunisieren.

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