cognition and chance the psychology of probabilistic reasoning

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Cognition And Chance

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
ISBN : 9781135614614
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87. 20 MB
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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Handbook Of Applied Cognition

Author : Francis T. Durso
ISBN : 9780470059630
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 89. 1 MB
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Written by a team of leading international researchers under the guidance of Frank Durso, the second edition of the Handbook of Applied Cognition brings together the latest research into this challenging and important field, and is presented across thirty stimulating and accessible chapters. Stewarded by experiences editors from around the globe, the handbook has been fully updated with eleven new chapters covering materials that focus on the topics critical to understanding human mental functions in complex environments. It is an essential single-source reference for researchers, cognitive engineers and applied cognitive psychologists, as well as advanced students in the flourishing field of applied cognition.

Mathematical Reasoning

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
ISBN : 1848728271
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 86. 73 MB
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The development of mathematical competence -- both by humans as a species over millennia and by individuals over their lifetimes -- is a fascinating aspect of human cognition. This book explores when and why the rudiments of mathematical capability first appeared among human beings, what its fundamental concepts are, and how and why it has grown into the richly branching complex of specialties that it is today. It discusses whether the âe~truthsâe(tm) of mathematics are discoveries or inventions, and what prompts the emergence of concepts that appear to be descriptive of nothing in human experience. Also covered is the role of esthetics in mathematics: What exactly are mathematicians seeing when they describe a mathematical entity as âe~beautifulâe(tm)? There is discussion of whether mathematical disability is distinguishable from a general cognitive deficit and whether the potential for mathematical reasoning is best developed through instruction. This volume is unique in the vast range of psychological questions it covers, as revealed in the work habits and products of numerous mathematicians. It provides fascinating reading for researchers and students with an interest in cognition in general and mathematical cognition in particular. Instructors of mathematics will also find the bookâe(tm)s insights illuminating.

Technometrics

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015065057591
Genre : Experimental design
File Size : 72. 43 MB
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Cognition And Conditionals

Author : Mike Oaksford
ISBN : 9780199233298
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 65. 67 MB
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The conditional, if...then, is probably the most important term in natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental representation. Cognition and Conditionals is the first volume for over 20 years (On Conditionals, 1986, CUP) that brings together recent developments in the cognitive science and psychology of conditional reasoning. Over the last 10 to 15 years, research on conditionals has come to dominate the psychology of reasoning providing arich seam of results that have created new theoretical possibilities. This book shows how these developments have led researchers to view people's conditional reasoning behaviour more as succesful probabilistic reasoning rather than as errorful logical reasoning. Cognition and Conditionalswill be a valuable resource for cognitive scientists, psychologists and philosophers interested how people actually reason with conditionals.

Decision Making And Rationality In The Modern World

Author : Keith E. Stanovich
ISBN : 0195328124
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 86. 81 MB
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In Decision Making and Rationality in the Modern World, Keith E. Stanovich demonstrates how work in the cognitive psychology of decision making has implications for the large and theoretically contentious debates about the nature of human rationality. Written specifically for undergraduate psychology students, the book presents a very practical approach to decision making, which is too often perceived by students as an artificial set of skills used only in academia and not in the real world. Instead, Stanovich shows how good decision-making procedures support rational behavior that enables people to act most efficiently to fulfill their goals. He explains how the concept of rationality is understood in cognitive science in terms of good decision making and judgment. Books in the Fundamentals of Cognition series serve as ideal instructional resources for advanced courses in cognitive psychology. They provide an up-to-date, well-organized survey of our current understanding of the major theories of cognitive psychology. The books are concise, which allows instructors to incorporate the latest original research and readings into their courses without overburdening their students. Focused without being too advanced--and comprehensive without being too broad--these books are the perfect resource for both students and instructors.

The Handbook Of School Psychology

Author : Cecil R. Reynolds
ISBN : 0471707473
Genre : Education
File Size : 24. 47 MB
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As the standard reference in the field, this edited handbook focuses on how a school psychologist can operate and create change within the educational system instead of focusing solely on the diagnosis and treatment of an individual. Chapters have been updated and revised to provide a contemporary view of the field.

Thinking In Bets

Author : Annie Duke
ISBN : 9780735216365
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 66. 96 MB
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Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Bayesian Rationality

Author : Mike Oaksford
ISBN : 0198524498
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 54. 1 MB
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For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

How To Think Straight About Psychology

Author : Keith E. Stanovich
ISBN : 1292023104
Genre : Mass media
File Size : 69. 73 MB
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For introductory psychology courses at two year or four year institutions. Also for specialty classes throughout the discipline that focus on critical thinking, science vs. pseudoscience, and discrimating valid research in the field. Keith Stanovich's widely used and highly acclaimed book helps students become more discriminating consumers of psychological information, helping them recognize pseudoscience and be able to distinguish it from true psychological research. Stanovich helps instructors teach critical thinking skills within the rich context of psychology. It is the leading text of its kind. How to Think Straight About Psychology says about the discipline of psychology what many instructors would like to say but haven't found a way to.

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