exploring and shaping international futures

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Exploring And Shaping International Futures

Author : Barry B. Hughes
ISBN : 9781317259862
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 69. 45 MB
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"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

Author : Barry B. Hughes
ISBN : 9789960544649
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 59. 82 MB
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كتاب إرشادي ضروري لفهم الاتجاهات المعاصرة ولرسم المستقبل. ولا يمكن الاستيعاب الكافي والجيد لأي اتجاه اقتصادي أو اجتماعي أو بيئي جيدًا إلا من خلال اندماج هذه الاتجاهات مع بعضها. هذا النظام الواسع ضم أنظمة كلية لإنشاء نماذج محاكية للواقع، وهو سهل الاستخدام وأداة متخصصة لتحليل سياسات بعيدة المدى والتعريف بها. كما ينفرد هذا الكتاب بتغطيته التحولات العالمية التي تصوغ مستقبل العالم مع أساس تطبيقي قوي وفي مجال واسع للطلاب وغيرهم؛ ليقرروا بأنفسهم أين تكون المشكلات؟ وأين الحلول؟ وماذا يجب عمله لكل ذلك ليتحسن مسقبلنا المشترك؟. ويوفر الكتاب مع نموذج الحاسب الآلي لبرنامج IFS اختصارًا مدهشًا لنظريات وبيانات ونمذجة منهجية، كما يقدم بيئة تعليمية رائعة واختبارًا تقويميًا للنزاع حول السياسة العملية.

Advancing Global Education

Author : Janet R. Dickson
ISBN : 9781317264187
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 61. 38 MB
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Education is one of the most fundamental prerequisites to economic growth and social stability in the world. It is also one of the most inadequately realised goals of development, with the average education of global adults remaining essentially at primary levels. Advancing Global Education is the second in a series of volumes that explores prospects for human development-how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. The first volume addressed the reduction of global poverty. The third will turn to the enhancement of global health. Advancing Global Education presents the most extensive set of forecasts of global education participation and attainment levels to date-providing and exploring a massive, multi-issue database and proposing a scenario for accelerating educational attainment throughout major world regions and 183 countries.

Energy Economic Growth And Geopolitical Futures

Author : Evan Hillebrand
ISBN : 9780262328739
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 21. 62 MB
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This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The "Regional Mercantilism" scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Long Range Futures Research

Author : Robert H. Samet
ISBN : 9781439214343
Genre : Science
File Size : 52. 33 MB
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This highly readable study explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system, with a new world view that out-ranges United Nations reference scenarios to beyond 2150.

Global Futures

Author : Jan Nederveen Pieterse
ISBN : 1856498026
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 83. 74 MB
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This work looks beyond the problems of accelerating globalization to examine how humanity can shape it. The contributors suggest a variety of perspectives, changes, policies and institutional reforms to strive for in our increasingly inter-connected world.

The African Affairs Reader

Author : Nic Cheeseman
ISBN : 9780192513038
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 40. 53 MB
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African Affairs is the top journal in African Studies and has been for some time. This book draws together some of the most influential, important, and thought provoking articles published in its pages over the last decade. In doing so, it collates essential cutting-edge research on Africa and makes it easily available for students, teachers, and researchers alike. The African Affairs Reader is broken down into four sections that cover some of the biggest themes and questions facing the continent today, including: the African State, the Political Economy of Development, Africa's Relationship with the World, and Elections, Representation & Democracy. Within each section, articles deal with some of the most significant recent trends and events, such as the prospects for democratization in Ghana and Nigeria, the factors underpinning Rwanda's economic success, the rise of political corruption in South Africa, the spread of the drugs trade, the struggle against gender based violence, and the growing influence of China. Each section is introduced by a new purpose-written essay by the journal's editors that explains the evolution of the wider debate, highlights key contributions, and suggests new ways in which the discussion can be taken forward. Taken together, the essays and articles included in the volume provide both a coherent introduction to the study of Africa and a compelling commentary on the current state of play on the continent.

North And South In The World Political Economy

Author : Rafael Reuveny
ISBN : UCSD:31822035349125
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 22. 22 MB
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A broad yet distinctive analysis of the growing political, economic, and social gap existing between the world’s northern and southern hemispheres. Featuring papers selected by the ISA President from the 2006 annual meeting, this upper-level volume examines the genesis of the North-South divide, the ongoing policy problems between developed and lesser developed states, and how these issues influence current and future world politics. An upper-level text ideal for academic libraries, think tanks, and libraries of policy institutions Organized into three distinct focus clusters: Problems afflicting the global South -- trade, development, financial crises, structural adjustment, democratization, human rights, disease; Specific conflicts between North and South -- energy, terrorism, weak states, nuclear weapon proliferation; Solutions to reduce the North-South gap -- foreign aid programs, global media, democratization, political power in the United Nations, the emerging powers phenomenon, transnational social movements, and Northern foreign policy adjustments Tackles the tough questions likely to dominate international relations discourse for decades to come

Bulletin Of The World Health Organization

Author : World Health Organization
ISBN : MINN:31951P011583430
Genre : Medicine
File Size : 78. 38 MB
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Exploring Civic Innovation For Social And Economic Transformation

Author : Kees Biekart
ISBN : 9781317386599
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 83. 76 MB
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This edited collection examines the globally rising phenomenon of civic innovation. Combining nuanced theory with rich empirical examples, this book defines the dynamic and complex process of civic innovation as the multiple economic, political and social processes where peoples, organizations, movements and ideas are shaping struggles for global justice on the interface of capitalism. Exploring Civic Innovation for Social and Economic Transformation reflects the increasingly holistic approach to development in terms of both teaching and research, and illustrates how civic innovation happens everywhere; at the global and institutional level as well as in communities and for individuals. Through conceptual debate and narrative accounts, this book explores the new practices emerging from varying economies, transformative empowerment strategies in global value chains, local politics of social movements and the struggles for rights in regards to race, gender and sexuality. Bringing together scholars from a range of disciplines, this book would be of interest to post-graduate students of development studies, with an interest in social research.

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