forecast verification a practitioner s guide in atmospheric science

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Forecast Verification

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
ISBN : 9781119961079
Genre : Science
File Size : 81. 89 MB
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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Forecast Verification

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
ISBN : 9780470864418
Genre : Science
File Size : 57. 53 MB
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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms

Forecast Verification

Author : Ian T. Jolliffe
ISBN : 0471497592
Genre : Science
File Size : 54. 28 MB
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This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms

An Introduction To Environmental Chemistry

Author : Julian E. Andrews
ISBN : 9781118685471
Genre : Science
File Size : 71. 80 MB
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This introductory text explains the fundamentals of the chemistry of the natural environment and the effects of mankind's activities on the earth's chemical systems. Retains an emphasis on describing how natural geochemical processes operate over a variety of scales in time and space, and how the effects of human perturbation can be measured. Topics range from familiar global issues such as atmospheric pollution and its effect on global warming and ozone destruction, to microbiological processes that cause pollution of drinking water deltas. Contains sections and information boxes that explain the basic chemistry underpinning the subject covered. Each chapter contains a list of further reading on the subject area. Updated case studies. No prior chemistry knowledge required. Suitable for introductory level courses.

Statistical Postprocessing Of Ensemble Forecasts

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
ISBN : 9780128122488
Genre : Science
File Size : 20. 63 MB
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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Data Analysis Methods In Physical Oceanography

Author : Richard E. Thomson
ISBN : 9780123877833
Genre : Science
File Size : 22. 6 MB
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Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography, Third Edition is a practical reference to established and modern data analysis techniques in earth and ocean sciences. Its five major sections address data acquisition and recording, data processing and presentation, statistical methods and error handling, analysis of spatial data fields, and time series analysis methods. The revised Third Edition updates the instrumentation used to collect and analyze physical oceanic data and adds new techniques including Kalman Filtering. Additionally, the sections covering spectral, wavelet, and harmonic analysis techniques are completely revised since these techniques have attracted significant attention over the past decade as more accurate and efficient data gathering and analysis methods. Completely updated and revised to reflect new filtering techniques and major updating of the instrumentation used to collect and analyze data Co-authored by scientists from academe and industry, both of whom have more than 30 years of experience in oceanographic research and field work Significant revision of sections covering spectral, wavelet, and harmonic analysis techniques Examples address typical data analysis problems yet provide the reader with formulaic “recipes for working with their own data Significant expansion to 350 figures, illustrations, diagrams and photos

An Introduction To Medical Statistics

Author : Martin Bland
ISBN : 9780191002991
Genre : Medical
File Size : 32. 68 MB
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Now in its Fourth Edition, An Introduction to Medical Statistics continues to be a 'must-have' textbook for anyone who needs a clear logical guide to the subject. Written in an easy-to-understand style and packed with real life examples, the text clearly explains the statistical principles used in the medical literature. Taking readers through the common statistical methods seen in published research and guidelines, the text focuses on how to interpret and analyse statistics for clinical practice. Using extracts from real studies, the author illustrates how data can be employed correctly and incorrectly in medical research helping readers to evaluate the statistics they encounter and appropriately implement findings in clinical practice. End of chapter exercises, case studies and multiple choice questions help readers to apply their learning and develop their own interpretative skills. This thoroughly revised edition includes new chapters on meta-analysis, missing data, and survival analysis.

Statistical Methods In The Atmospheric Sciences

Author : Daniel S. Wilks
ISBN : 0080541720
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 36. 71 MB
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This book introduces and explains the statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. It will be useful to students, scientists, and other professionals who seek to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, or other geophysical disciplines, or to understand and communicate what their atmospheric data sets have to say. The book includes chapters on exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, time(series analysis, and multivariate data analysis. Worked examples, exercises, and illustrations facilitate understanding of the material; an extensive and up-to-date list of references allows the reader to pursue selected topics in greater depth. Key Features * Presents and explains techniques used in atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing, and forecasting * Includes extensive and up-to-date references * Features numerous worked examples and exercises * Contains over 130 illustrations

Massive

Author : Ian Sample
ISBN : 9780465031696
Genre : Science
File Size : 38. 89 MB
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The biggest science story of our time, Massive spans four decades, weaving together the personal narratives and international rivalries behind the search for the “God" particle, or Higgs boson. A story of grand ambition, intense competition, clashing egos, and occasionally spectacular failures, Massive is the first book that reveals the science, culture, and politics behind the biggest unanswered question in modern physics—what gives things mass? Drawing upon his unprecedented access to Peter Higgs, after whom the particle is named, award-winning science writer Ian Sample chronicles the multinational and multibillion-dollar quest to solve the mystery of mass. For scientists, to find the God particle is to finally understand the origin of mass, and until now, the story of their search has never been told.

Seasonal Climate Forecasting And Managing Risk

Author : Alberto Troccoli
ISBN : 9781402069925
Genre : Science
File Size : 38. 19 MB
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Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

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