forecasting in financial and sports gambling markets adaptive drift modeling

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Forecasting In Financial And Sports Gambling Markets

Author : William S. Mallios
ISBN : 1118099532
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 20. 4 MB
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A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.

Adaptive Markets

Author : Andrew W. Lo
ISBN : 9781400887767
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20. 62 MB
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A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe—and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. A fascinating intellectual journey filled with compelling stories, Adaptive Markets starts with the origins of market efficiency and its failures, turns to the foundations of investor behavior, and concludes with practical implications—including how hedge funds have become the Galápagos Islands of finance, what really happened in the 2008 meltdown, and how we might avoid future crises. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions in economics, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how markets really work.

Calculated Bets

Author : Steven S. Skiena
ISBN : 0521009626
Genre : Computers
File Size : 57. 35 MB
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A story of using computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully.

All About Day Trading

Author : Jake Bernstein
ISBN : 9780071778619
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 72. 89 MB
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PLAY AND WIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE FASTEST GAME IN TOWN Day trading might seem too complex and fast paced for you—but when you break it all down, you’ll discover that at its core is a stable, simple set of rules that anyone can learn. All About Day Trading covers all aspects of the subject, explaining how day trading works, how it fits into the larger world of the financial markets, and how to navigate its hazards. It takes you through the fundamentals and then moves on to more advanced topics—providing a fully rounded outline that will get you going in no time. Avoiding the complicated language and nebulous theories of other day-trading books, All About Day Trading teaches you how to: Avoid common psychological pitfalls of day trading Construct and test your own powerful day-trading system Track news events to improve your day-in, day-out profi t potential Trade successfully with moving averages, momentum, gaps, and more

Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market

Author : Jeff Greenblatt
ISBN : 9781118716014
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 57. 45 MB
Format : PDF
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The revised and updated edition of the book that changed the way you think about trading In the Second Edition of this groundbreaking book by star trader Jeff Greenblatt, he continues to shares his hard-won lessons on what it takes to be a professional trader, while detailing his proven techniques for mastering market timing. With the help of numerous case studies and charts, Greenblatt develops his original high-probability pattern recognition system which, once mastered, endows its user with a deeper understanding of how the markets really work and boosts the efficiency of any trading methodology. Following in the footsteps of the great W.D. Gann, Jeff Greenblatt helps investors gain greater precision with any instrument they trade, during any time frame. Shows how to combine a variety of technical indicators to pinpoint turning points in the financial markets Makes even the most complex subject matter easy to understand with crystal-clear explanations and step-by-step guidance on all concepts, terms, processes, and techniques Reveals how to use Elliott Wave Analysis, Fibonacci, candlesticks, and momentum indicators to interpret market movements Breakthrough Strategies for Predicting Any Market shares fascinating and enlightening personal anecdotes from Jeff Greenblatt's career along with his candid reflection on developing and maintaining the mental discipline of a successful trader.

Planning A Successful Future

Author : John E. Sestina
ISBN : 9781119187974
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 41. 17 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
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A deeply insightful guide to goal-based financial planning and wealth management Planning a Successful Future empowers advisors and clients to take control of their money and manage their income to achieve their financial goals. Written by the father of fee-only financial planning, this book features real-life stories and examples from over three decades in the industry to illustrate how financial planning works and the best way to create your strategy. You'll learn how to identify and prioritize your goals, and why they're important—and how to get where you need to be for retirement, education, home ownership, and more. Practical exercises get you started on the right track, and useful checklists keep you organized and focused along the way. You'll get expert insight on risk management, allocation, tax reduction, estate planning, and more, as you develop your strategy and put it into action. The financial services industry undergoes frequent changes, and financial planning specifically is affected to a high degree. Keeping up with the latest news and distinguishing trend from legitimate methodology can itself be a fulltime job. This book gives you the background you need to create a plan, and make the smart choices that will help you grow and protect your wealth. Create a realistic and goal-based financial plan Take a more proactive approach to your finances Identify your goals and how to achieve them Allocate investments appropriately for your situation Financial planning is complex, with many variables to analyze and outside forces that can derail even the best laid plans. Planning a Successful Future gives you the information, tools, strategies, and insight you need to make the best decisions for your financial future.

Sports Metric Forecasting

Author : William Mallios
ISBN : 9781499042733
Genre : Sports & Recreation
File Size : 79. 44 MB
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The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9780143125082
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 57. 32 MB
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The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.

The Handbook Of Equity Market Anomalies

Author : Leonard Zacks
ISBN : 9781118127766
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 79. 45 MB
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Investment pioneer Len Zacks presents the latest academic research on how to beat the market using equity anomalies The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies organizes and summarizes research carried out by hundreds of finance and accounting professors over the last twenty years to identify and measure equity market inefficiencies and provides self-directed individual investors with a framework for incorporating the results of this research into their own investment processes. Edited by Len Zacks, CEO of Zacks Investment Research, and written by leading professors who have performed groundbreaking research on specific anomalies, this book succinctly summarizes the most important anomalies that savvy investors have used for decades to beat the market. Some of the anomalies addressed include the accrual anomaly, net stock anomalies, fundamental anomalies, estimate revisions, changes in and levels of broker recommendations, earnings-per-share surprises, insider trading, price momentum and technical analysis, value and size anomalies, and several seasonal anomalies. This reliable resource also provides insights on how to best use the various anomalies in both market neutral and in long investor portfolios. A treasure trove of investment research and wisdom, the book will save you literally thousands of hours by distilling the essence of twenty years of academic research into eleven clear chapters and providing the framework and conviction to develop market-beating strategies. Strips the academic jargon from the research and highlights the actual returns generated by the anomalies, and documented in the academic literature Provides a theoretical framework within which to understand the concepts of risk adjusted returns and market inefficiencies Anomalies are selected by Len Zacks, a pioneer in the field of investing As the founder of Zacks Investment Research, Len Zacks pioneered the concept of the earnings-per-share surprise in 1982 and developed the Zacks Rank, one of the first anomaly-based stock selection tools. Today, his firm manages U.S. equities for individual and institutional investors and provides investment software and investment data to all types of investors. Now, with his new book, he shows you what it takes to build a quant process to outperform an index based on academically documented market inefficiencies and anomalies.

The Oxford Guide To Financial Modeling

Author : Thomas S. Y. Ho
ISBN : 9780195169621
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 43. 24 MB
Format : PDF, ePub
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Presents the financial models of stock and bond options, exotic options, investment-grade and high-yield bonds, convertible bonds, mortgage-backed securities, credit derivatives, liabilities of financial institutions, the business model, and the corporate model. It also describes the applications of the models to corporate finance and relates the models to fair value accounting, enterprise risk management, and asset/liability management with illiquid instruments. Each chapter introduces a practical problem and then the financial models that provide the business solutions.

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