forecasting time series and regression with cd rom forecasting time series regression

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Forecasting Time Series And Regression

Author : Richard T. O'Connell
ISBN : 0534409776
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 48. 53 MB
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Awarded Outstanding Academic Book by CHOICE magazine in its first edition, FORECASTING, TIME SERIES, AND REGRESSION: AN APPLIED APPROACH illustrates the vital importance of forecasting and the various statistical techniques that can be used to produce them. With an emphasis on applications, this book provides both the conceptual development and practical motivation you need to effectively implement forecasts of your own. You'll understand why using forecasts to make intelligent decisions in marketing, finance, personnel management, production scheduling, process control, and strategic management is so vital.

Forecasting And Time Series

Author : Bruce L. Bowerman
ISBN : 0534379699
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 38. 99 MB
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The Third Edition of FORECASTING AND TIME SERIES illustrates the importance of forecasting and the various statistical techniques that can be used to produce forecasts. Bruce L. Bowerman and Richard T. O'Connell clearly demonstrate the necessity of using forecasts to make intelligent decisions in marketing, finance, personnel management, production scheduling, process control, and strategic management.

Forecasting With Dynamic Regression Models

Author : Alan Pankratz
ISBN : 9781118150788
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 45. 26 MB
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One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Author : Eric Ghysels
ISBN : 9780190622015
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 74. 15 MB
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Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications. Undergraduate and graduate students learning basic and advanced forecasting techniques will be able to build from strong foundations, and researchers in public and private institutions will have access to the most recent tools and insights. Readers will gain from the frequent examples that enhance understanding of how to apply techniques, first by using stylized settings and then by real data applications--focusing on macroeconomic and financial topics. This is first and foremost a book aimed at applying time series methods to solve real-world forecasting problems. Applied Economic Forecasting using Time Series Methods starts with a brief review of basic regression analysis with a focus on specific regression topics relevant for forecasting, such as model specification errors, dynamic models and their predictive properties as well as forecast evaluation and combination. Several chapters cover univariate time series models, vector autoregressive models, cointegration and error correction models, and Bayesian methods for estimating vector autoregressive models. A collection of special topics chapters study Threshold and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (TAR and STAR) models, Markov switching regime models, state space models and the Kalman filter, mixed frequency data models, nowcasting, forecasting using large datasets and, finally, volatility models. There are plenty of practical applications in the book and both EViews and R code are available online.

Sas For Forecasting Time Series

Author : John C. Brocklebank
ISBN : 0471395668
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 76. 88 MB
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Easy-to-read and comprehensive, this book shows how the SAS System performs multivariate time series analysis and features the advanced SAS procedures STATSPACE, ARIMA, and SPECTRA. The interrelationship of SAS/ETS procedures is demonstrated with an accompanying discussion of how the choice of a procedure depends on the data to be analysed and the reults desired. Other topics covered include detecting sinusoidal components in time series models and performing bivariate corr-spectral analysis and comparing the results with the standard transfer function methodology. The authors? unique approach to integrating students in a variety of disciplines and industries. Emphasis is on correct interpretation of output to draw meaningful conclusions. The volume, co-pubished by SAS and JWS, features both theory and practicality, and accompanies a soon-to-be extensive library of SAS hands-on manuals in a multitude of statistical areas. The book can be used with a number of hardware-specific computing machines including CMS, Mac, MVS, Opem VMS Alpha, Opmen VMS VAX, OS/390, OS/2, UNIX, and Windows.

Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
ISBN : 9783319298542
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 36. 76 MB
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This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Many additional special topics are also covered. New to this edition: A chapter devoted to Financial Time Series Introductions to Brownian motion, Lévy processes and Itô calculus An expanded section on continuous-time ARMA processes

Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

Author : Douglas C. Montgomery
ISBN : 9781118211502
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 37. 1 MB
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An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts. Seven easy-to-follow chapters provide intuitive explanations and in-depth coverage of key forecasting topics, including: Regression-based methods, heuristic smoothing methods, and general time series models Basic statistical tools used in analyzing time series data Metrics for evaluating forecast errors and methods for evaluating and tracking forecasting performance over time Cross-section and time series regression data, least squares and maximum likelihood model fitting, model adequacy checking, prediction intervals, and weighted and generalized least squares Exponential smoothing techniques for time series with polynomial components and seasonal data Forecasting and prediction interval construction with a discussion on transfer function models as well as intervention modeling and analysis Multivariate time series problems, ARCH and GARCH models, and combinations of forecasts The ARIMA model approach with a discussion on how to identify and fit these models for non-seasonal and seasonal time series The intricate role of computer software in successful time series analysis is acknowledged with the use of Minitab, JMP, and SAS software applications, which illustrate how the methods are imple-mented in practice. An extensive FTP site is available for readers to obtain data sets, Microsoft Office PowerPoint slides, and selected answers to problems in the book. Requiring only a basic working knowledge of statistics and complete with exercises at the end of each chapter as well as examples from a wide array of fields, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is an ideal text for forecasting and time series courses at the advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. The book also serves as an indispensable reference for practitioners in business, economics, engineering, statistics, mathematics, and the social, environmental, and life sciences.

Statistical Methods For Forecasting

Author : Bovas Abraham
ISBN : 9780470317297
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 36. 83 MB
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The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!" -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates." -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.

Fundamentals Of Forecasting Using Excel

Author : Kenneth D. Lawrence
ISBN : 083113335X
Genre : Computers
File Size : 35. 47 MB
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Forecasting is an integral part of almost all business enterprises. This book provides readers with the tools to analyze their data, develop forecasting models and present the results in Excel. Progressing from data collection, data presentation, to a step-by-step development of the forecasting techniques, this essential text covers techniques that include but not limited to time series-moving average, exponential smoothing, trending, simple and multiple regression, and Box-Jenkins. And unlike other products of its kind that require either high-priced statistical software or Excel add-ins, this book does not require such software. It can be used both as a primary text and as a supplementary text. Highlights the use of Excel screen shots, data tables, and graphs. Features Full Scale Use of Excel in Forecasting without the Use of Specialized Forecast Packages Includes Excel templates. Emphasizes the practical application of forecasting. Provides coverage of Special Forecasting, including New Product Forecasting, Network Models Forecasting, Links to Input/Output Modeling, and Combination of Forecasting.

Time Series Analysis And Forecasting By Example

Author : Søren Bisgaard
ISBN : 1118056957
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 90. 76 MB
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An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in detail and explain the relevant theory while also focusing on the interpretation of results in data analysis. Following a discussion of why autocorrelation is often observed when data is collected in time, subsequent chapters explore related topics, including: Graphical tools in time series analysis Procedures for developing stationary, non-stationary, and seasonal models How to choose the best time series model Constant term and cancellation of terms in ARIMA models Forecasting using transfer function-noise models The final chapter is dedicated to key topics such as spurious relationships, autocorrelation in regression, and multiple time series. Throughout the book, real-world examples illustrate step-by-step procedures and instructions using statistical software packages such as SAS®, JMP, Minitab, SCA, and R. A related Web site features PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter as well as the book's data sets. With its extensive use of graphics and examples to explain key concepts, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example is an excellent book for courses on time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. it also serves as a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers who carry out data and time series analysis in the fields of engineering, business, and economics.

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