forecasting with exponential smoothing springer series in statistics

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Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing

Author : Rob Hyndman
ISBN : 9783540719182
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 62. 56 MB
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Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
ISBN : 9781475725261
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 85. 32 MB
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Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

Author : Ignacio Rojas
ISBN : 9783319287256
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 71. 82 MB
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This volume presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from The International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2015, held in Granada, Spain, July 1-3, 2015. It discusses topics in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series, high-dimensional and complex/big data time series as well as forecasting in real problems. The International Work-Conferences on Time Series (ITISE) provide a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

Resampling Methods For Dependent Data

Author : S. N. Lahiri
ISBN : 9781475738032
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 68. 71 MB
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By giving a detailed account of bootstrap methods and their properties for dependent data, this book provides illustrative numerical examples throughout. The book fills a gap in the literature covering research on re-sampling methods for dependent data that has witnessed vigorous growth over the last two decades but remains scattered in various statistics and econometrics journals. It can be used as a graduate level text and also as a research monograph for statisticians and econometricians.

Multivariate Methods And Forecasting With Ibm Spss Statistics

Author : Abdulkader Aljandali
ISBN : 9783319564814
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 80. 69 MB
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This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Discriminant Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling (MDS).

Forecasting With Dynamic Regression Models

Author : Alan Pankratz
ISBN : 9781118150788
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 53. 13 MB
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One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

Springer Handbook Of Engineering Statistics

Author : Hoang Pham
ISBN : 9781852338060
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 55. 45 MB
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In today’s global and highly competitive environment, continuous improvement in the processes and products of any field of engineering is essential for survival. This book gathers together the full range of statistical techniques required by engineers from all fields. It will assist them to gain sensible statistical feedback on how their processes or products are functioning and to give them realistic predictions of how these could be improved. The handbook will be essential reading for all engineers and engineering-connected managers who are serious about keeping their methods and products at the cutting edge of quality and competitiveness.

The Elements Of Statistical Learning

Author : Trevor Hastie
ISBN : 9780387216065
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 26. 47 MB
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During the past decade there has been an explosion in computation and information technology. With it have come vast amounts of data in a variety of fields such as medicine, biology, finance, and marketing. The challenge of understanding these data has led to the development of new tools in the field of statistics, and spawned new areas such as data mining, machine learning, and bioinformatics. Many of these tools have common underpinnings but are often expressed with different terminology. This book describes the important ideas in these areas in a common conceptual framework. While the approach is statistical, the emphasis is on concepts rather than mathematics. Many examples are given, with a liberal use of color graphics. It should be a valuable resource for statisticians and anyone interested in data mining in science or industry. The book’s coverage is broad, from supervised learning (prediction) to unsupervised learning. The many topics include neural networks, support vector machines, classification trees and boosting---the first comprehensive treatment of this topic in any book. This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for “wide” data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates. Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.

Elements Of Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Author : Gregory C. Reinsel
ISBN : 0387406190
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 35. 25 MB
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This text concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and assumes a background in univariate time series analysis. It also includes exercise sets and multivariate time series data sets. The book should also be useful to researchers and graduate students in the areas of statistics, econometrics, business, and engineering.

Advances In Artificial Intelligence Iberamia 2014

Author : Ana L. C. Bazzan
ISBN : 9783319120270
Genre : Computers
File Size : 38. 8 MB
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This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th Ibero-American Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IBERAMIA 2014, held in Santiago de Chile, Chile, in November 2014. The 64 papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 136 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: knowledge engineering, knowledge representation and probabilistic reasoning; planning and scheduling; natural language processing; machine learning; fuzzy systems; knowledge discovery and data mining; bio-inspired computing; robotics; vision; multi-agent systems; agent-based modeling and simulation; AI in education, affective computing, and human-computer interaction; applications of AI; and ambient intelligence.

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