forecasting with exponential smoothing springer series in statistics

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Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing

Author : Rob Hyndman
ISBN : 9783540719182
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 72. 4 MB
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Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

Springer Handbook Of Engineering Statistics

Author : Hoang Pham
ISBN : 9781852338060
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 76. 82 MB
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In today’s global and highly competitive environment, continuous improvement in the processes and products of any field of engineering is essential for survival. This book gathers together the full range of statistical techniques required by engineers from all fields. It will assist them to gain sensible statistical feedback on how their processes or products are functioning and to give them realistic predictions of how these could be improved. The handbook will be essential reading for all engineers and engineering-connected managers who are serious about keeping their methods and products at the cutting edge of quality and competitiveness.

Self Aware Computing Systems

Author : Samuel Kounev
ISBN : 9783319474748
Genre : Computers
File Size : 23. 36 MB
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This book provides formal and informal definitions and taxonomies for self-aware computing systems, and explains how self-aware computing relates to many existing subfields of computer science, especially software engineering. It describes architectures and algorithms for self-aware systems as well as the benefits and pitfalls of self-awareness, and reviews much of the latest relevant research across a wide array of disciplines, including open research challenges. The chapters of this book are organized into five parts: Introduction, System Architectures, Methods and Algorithms, Applications and Case Studies, and Outlook. Part I offers an introduction that defines self-aware computing systems from multiple perspectives, and establishes a formal definition, a taxonomy and a set of reference scenarios that help to unify the remaining chapters. Next, Part II explores architectures for self-aware computing systems, such as generic concepts and notations that allow a wide range of self-aware system architectures to be described and compared with both isolated and interacting systems. It also reviews the current state of reference architectures, architectural frameworks, and languages for self-aware systems. Part III focuses on methods and algorithms for self-aware computing systems by addressing issues pertaining to system design, like modeling, synthesis and verification. It also examines topics such as adaptation, benchmarks and metrics. Part IV then presents applications and case studies in various domains including cloud computing, data centers, cyber-physical systems, and the degree to which self-aware computing approaches have been adopted within those domains. Lastly, Part V surveys open challenges and future research directions for self-aware computing systems. It can be used as a handbook for professionals and researchers working in areas related to self-aware computing, and can also serve as an advanced textbook for lecturers and postgraduate students studying subjects like advanced software engineering, autonomic computing, self-adaptive systems, and data-center resource management. Each chapter is largely self-contained, and offers plenty of references for anyone wishing to pursue the topic more deeply.

Advances In Regression Survival Analysis Extreme Values Markov Processes And Other Statistical Applications

Author : João Lita da Silva
ISBN : 9783642349041
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 26 MB
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This volume of the Selected Papers from Portugal is a product of the Seventeenth Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society, held at the beautiful resort seaside city of Sesimbra, Portugal, from September 30 to October 3, 2009. It covers a broad scope of theoretical, methodological as well as application-oriented articles in domains such as: Linear Models and Regression, Survival Analysis, Extreme Value Theory, Statistics of Diffusions, Markov Processes and other Statistical Applications.

Introduction To Time Series And Forecasting

Author : Peter J. Brockwell
ISBN : 9781475725261
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 52. 30 MB
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Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

Energy Time Series Forecasting

Author : Lars Dannecker
ISBN : 9783658110390
Genre : Computers
File Size : 28. 43 MB
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Lars Dannecker developed a novel online forecasting process that significantly improves how forecasts are calculated. It increases forecasting efficiency and accuracy, as well as allowing the process to adapt to different situations and applications. Improving the forecasting efficiency is a key pre-requisite for ensuring stable electricity grids in the face of an increasing amount of renewable energy sources. It is also important to facilitate the move from static day ahead electricity trading towards more dynamic real-time marketplaces. The online forecasting process is realized by a number of approaches on the logical as well as on the physical layer that we introduce in the course of this book. Nominated for the Georg-Helm-Preis 2015 awarded by the Technische Universität Dresden.

Demand Forecasting For Inventory Control

Author : Nick T. Thomopoulos
ISBN : 9783319119762
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 86. 18 MB
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This book describes the methods used to forecast the demands at inventory holding locations. The methods are proven, practical and doable for most applications, and pertain to demand patterns that are horizontal, trending, seasonal, promotion and multi-sku. The forecasting methods include regression, moving averages, discounting, smoothing, two-stage forecasts, dampening forecasts, advance demand forecasts, initial forecasts, all time forecasts, top-down, bottom-up, raw and integer forecasts, Also described are demand history, demand profile, forecast error, coefficient of variation, forecast sensitivity and filtering outliers. The book shows how the forecasts with the standard normal, partial normal and truncated normal distributions are used to generate the safety stock for the availability and the percent fill customer service methods. The material presents topics that people want and should know in the work place. The presentation is easy to read for students and practitioners; there is little need to delve into difficult mathematical relationships, and numerical examples are presented throughout to guide the reader on applications. Practitioners will be able to apply the methods learned to the systems in their locations, and the typical worker will want the book on their bookshelf for reference. The potential market is vast. It includes everyone in professional organizations like APICS, DSI and INFORMS; MBA graduates, people in industry, and students in management science, business and industrial engineering.

Modeling Techniques In Predictive Analytics

Author : Thomas W. Miller
ISBN : 9780133886191
Genre : Computers
File Size : 25. 29 MB
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To succeed with predictive analytics, you must understand it on three levels: Strategy and management Methods and models Technology and code This up-to-the-minute reference thoroughly covers all three categories. Now fully updated, this uniquely accessible book will help you use predictive analytics to solve real business problems and drive real competitive advantage. If you’re new to the discipline, it will give you the strong foundation you need to get accurate, actionable results. If you’re already a modeler, programmer, or manager, it will teach you crucial skills you don’t yet have. Unlike competitive books, this guide illuminates the discipline through realistic vignettes and intuitive data visualizations–not complex math. Thomas W. Miller, leader of Northwestern University’s pioneering program in predictive analytics, guides you through defining problems, identifying data, crafting and optimizing models, writing effective R code, interpreting results, and more. Every chapter focuses on one of today’s key applications for predictive analytics, delivering skills and knowledge to put models to work–and maximize their value. Reflecting extensive student and instructor feedback, this edition adds five classroom-tested case studies, updates all code for new versions of R, explains code behavior more clearly and completely, and covers modern data science methods even more effectively. All data sets, extensive R code, and additional examples available for download at http://www.ftpress.com/miller If you want to make the most of predictive analytics, data science, and big data, this is the book for you. Thomas W. Miller’s unique balanced approach combines business context and quantitative tools, appealing to managers, analysts, programmers, and students alike. Miller addresses multiple business cases and challenges, including segmentation, brand positioning, product choice modeling, pricing research, finance, sports, text analytics, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis. He illuminates the use of cross-sectional data, time series, spatial, and spatio-temporal data. You’ll learn why each problem matters, what data are relevant, and how to explore the data you’ve identified. Miller guides you through conceptually modeling each data set with words and figures; and then modeling it again with realistic R programs that deliver actionable insights. You’ll walk through model construction, explanatory variable subset selection, and validation, mastering best practices for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. Throughout, Miller employs data visualization and statistical graphics to help you explore data, present models, and evaluate performance. This edition adds five new case studies, updates all code for the newest versions of R, adds more commenting to clarify how the code works, and offers a more detailed and up-to-date primer on data science methods. Gain powerful, actionable, profitable insights about: Advertising and promotion Consumer preference and choice Market baskets and related purchases Economic forecasting Operations management Unstructured text and language Customer sentiment Brand and price Sports team performance And much more

Modeling Techniques In Predictive Analytics With Python And R

Author : Thomas W. Miller
ISBN : 9780133892147
Genre : Computers
File Size : 74. 19 MB
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Master predictive analytics, from start to finish Start with strategy and management Master methods and build models Transform your models into highly-effective code—in both Python and R This one-of-a-kind book will help you use predictive analytics, Python, and R to solve real business problems and drive real competitive advantage. You’ll master predictive analytics through realistic case studies, intuitive data visualizations, and up-to-date code for both Python and R—not complex math. Step by step, you’ll walk through defining problems, identifying data, crafting and optimizing models, writing effective Python and R code, interpreting results, and more. Each chapter focuses on one of today’s key applications for predictive analytics, delivering skills and knowledge to put models to work—and maximize their value. Thomas W. Miller, leader of Northwestern University’s pioneering program in predictive analytics, addresses everything you need to succeed: strategy and management, methods and models, and technology and code. If you’re new to predictive analytics, you’ll gain a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already working in the field, you’ll master powerful new skills. If you’re familiar with either Python or R, you’ll discover how these languages complement each other, enabling you to do even more. All data sets, extensive Python and R code, and additional examples available for download at http://www.ftpress.com/miller/ Python and R offer immense power in predictive analytics, data science, and big data. This book will help you leverage that power to solve real business problems, and drive real competitive advantage. Thomas W. Miller’s unique balanced approach combines business context and quantitative tools, illuminating each technique with carefully explained code for the latest versions of Python and R. If you’re new to predictive analytics, Miller gives you a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already a modeler, programmer, or manager, you’ll learn crucial skills you don’t already have. Using Python and R, Miller addresses multiple business challenges, including segmentation, brand positioning, product choice modeling, pricing research, finance, sports, text analytics, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis. He illuminates the use of cross-sectional data, time series, spatial, and spatio-temporal data. You’ll learn why each problem matters, what data are relevant, and how to explore the data you’ve identified. Miller guides you through conceptually modeling each data set with words and figures; and then modeling it again with realistic code that delivers actionable insights. You’ll walk through model construction, explanatory variable subset selection, and validation, mastering best practices for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. Miller employs data visualization and statistical graphics to help you explore data, present models, and evaluate performance. Appendices include five complete case studies, and a detailed primer on modern data science methods. Use Python and R to gain powerful, actionable, profitable insights about: Advertising and promotion Consumer preference and choice Market baskets and related purchases Economic forecasting Operations management Unstructured text and language Customer sentiment Brand and price Sports team performance And much more

Swarm Evolutionary And Memetic Computing

Author : Bijaya Ketan Panigrahi
ISBN : 9783319037561
Genre : Computers
File Size : 78. 79 MB
Format : PDF
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The two-volume set LNCS 8297 and LNCS 8298 constitutes the proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Swarm, Evolutionary and Memetic Computing, SEMCCO 2013, held in Chennai, India, in December 2013. The total of 123 papers presented in this volume was carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the proceedings. They cover cutting-edge research on swarm, evolutionary and memetic computing, neural and fuzzy computing and its application.

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