future babble why expert predictions fail and why we believe them anyway

Download Book Future Babble Why Expert Predictions Fail And Why We Believe Them Anyway in PDF format. You can Read Online Future Babble Why Expert Predictions Fail And Why We Believe Them Anyway here in PDF, EPUB, Mobi or Docx formats.

Future Babble

Author : Dan Gardner
ISBN : 9780771035210
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 38. 55 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
Download : 848
Read : 569

Get This Book


In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. From the Hardcover edition.

Playing Against Nature

Author : Seth Stein
ISBN : 9781118620809
Genre : Science
File Size : 87. 92 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download : 174
Read : 858

Get This Book


Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when – as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California – there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing. This book uses general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature

Hubris The Troubling Science Economics And Politics Of Climate Change

Author : Michael Hart
ISBN : 9780994903808
Genre :
File Size : 33. 31 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
Download : 146
Read : 314

Get This Book



Superforecasting

Author : Philip Tetlock
ISBN : 9781448166596
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 31. 43 MB
Format : PDF
Download : 412
Read : 1292

Get This Book


WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Investing

Author : Robert G Hagstrom
ISBN : 9780231531016
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 70. 89 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
Download : 591
Read : 449

Get This Book


Robert G. Hagstrom is one of the best-known authors of investment books for general audiences. Turning his extensive experience as a portfolio manager at Legg Mason Capital Management into valuable guidance for professionals and nonprofessionals alike, he is the author of six successful books on investment, including The Warren Buffett Way, a New York Times best-seller that has sold more than a million copies. In this updated second edition of Investing: The Last Liberal Art, Hagstrom explores basic and fundamental investing concepts in a range of fields outside of economics, including physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy, and literature. He discusses, for instance, how the theory of evolution disrupts the notion of the efficient market and how reading strategies for literature can be gainfully applied to investing research. Building on Charlie Munger’s famous “latticework of mental models” concept, Hagstrom argues that it is impossible to make good investment decisions based solely on a strong knowledge of finance theory alone. He reinforces his concepts with additional data and new chapters on mathematics and history and updates his text throughout to reflect the developments of the past decade, particularly the seismic economic upheaval of 2008. He has also added a hundred new titles to the invaluable reading list concluding the book. Praise for the first edition: “I read this book in one sitting: I could not put it down.”—Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk “Elegant and irresistible. Robert G. Hagstrom makes the complex clear as he confidently crisscrosses through the disciplines of finance, biology, physics, and literature. The only way to understand investing better, [Investing] shows, is to understand the world better. Ideas spark off the page at every turn. This is simply a gem of a book.”—James Surowiecki, New Yorker “Investing is a brisk and engaging read, and it is a pleasure to be in the presence of Hagstrom’s agile mind.”—International Herald Tribune

Quill Quire

Author :
ISBN : OSU:32435081766719
Genre : Book industries and trade
File Size : 22. 47 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Docs
Download : 708
Read : 785

Get This Book



Die Oracula Sibyllina

Author :
ISBN : 3110299097
Genre :
File Size : 76. 86 MB
Format : PDF, Kindle
Download : 993
Read : 799

Get This Book



Odysseia

Author : Nikos Kazantzakis
ISBN : IND:32000003292481
Genre : Literary Criticism
File Size : 69. 94 MB
Format : PDF, ePub, Mobi
Download : 202
Read : 814

Get This Book



The Economist

Author :
ISBN : UVA:X000018670
Genre : Economic history
File Size : 48. 66 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
Download : 563
Read : 262

Get This Book



Top Download:

Best Books