future oriented technology analysis

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Future Oriented Technology Analysis

Author : Cristiano Cagnin
ISBN : 9783540688112
Genre : Science
File Size : 20. 41 MB
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The application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. In that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. FTA addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. It is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. This book charts the development of FTA and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. It draws on papers addressing the application of FTA around the globe which were presented at the Second International Seville Seminar in September 2006. The insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

Future Oriented Technology Analysis

Author : Cristiano Cagnin
ISBN : 3540688099
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 42. 34 MB
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This book charts the development of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA). Drawing on papers presented at the Second International Seville Seminar in September 2006, it provides a description and analysis of its many practical applications.

Future Oriented Technology Analysis Fta

Author : Totti Könnöla
ISBN : OCLC:547951410
Genre : Technological forecasting
File Size : 42. 91 MB
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Policy Oriented Technology Assessment Across Europe

Author : Lars Klüver
ISBN : 9781137561725
Genre : Computers
File Size : 40. 1 MB
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This book is open access under a CC-BY license. Policy-making to address grand challenges faces greater complexity than any previous project of modernization. Future scenarios are haunted by uncertainty and there is real ambivalence as to the values that policy should strive for. In this situation decision-makers look to research and innovation to provide answers and solutions. But neither can the great transitions ahead be planned by science, nor will conventional methods of innovation bring such transitions about. A turn to interactive governance is therefore underway with policy-makers and citizens becoming increasingly involved in processes of deliberating futures. Technology Assessment (TA) is the art of structuring such processes. TA goes beyond traditional expert policy analysis by systematically combining a multi-disciplinary evidence base with participatory approaches to policy deliberation. TA thus seeks to act as a hub for serious and transparent dialogue between policy, industry, science, and society about the challenges ahead and the available options for overcoming them responsibly. This volume offers an up-to-date account of the expansion of technology assessment capacities across new European member states. The contributions of this volume are written by leading European researchers and practitioners in technology assessment (TA) and are based on the PACITA (Parliaments and Civil Society in Technology Assessment) project.

Anticipating Future Innovation Pathways Through Large Data Analysis

Author : Tugrul U. Daim
ISBN : 9783319390567
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 38. 27 MB
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This book aims to identify promising future developmental opportunities and applications for Tech Mining. Specifically, the enclosed contributions will pursue three converging themes: The increasing availability of electronic text data resources relating to Science, Technology and Innovation (ST&I). The multiple methods that are able to treat this data effectively and incorporate means to tap into human expertise and interests. Translating those analyses to provide useful intelligence on likely future developments of particular emerging S&T targets. Tech Mining can be defined as text analyses of ST&I information resources to generate Competitive Technical Intelligence (CTI). It combines bibliometrics and advanced text analytic, drawing on specialized knowledge pertaining to ST&I. Tech Mining may also be viewed as a special form of “Big Data” analytics because it searches on a target emerging technology (or key organization) of interest in global databases. One then downloads, typically, thousands of field-structured text records (usually abstracts), and analyses those for useful CTI. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) is a methodology drawing on Tech Mining plus additional steps to elicit stakeholder and expert knowledge to link recent ST&I activity to likely future development. A decade ago, we demeaned Management of Technology (MOT) as somewhat self-satisfied and ignorant. Most technology managers relied overwhelmingly on casual human judgment, largely oblivious of the potential of empirical analyses to inform R&D management and science policy. CTI, Tech Mining, and FIP are changing that. The accumulation of Tech Mining research over the past decade offers a rich resource of means to get at emerging technology developments and organizational networks to date. Efforts to bridge from those recent histories of development to project likely FIP, however, prove considerably harder. One focus of this volume is to extend the repertoire of information resources; that will enrich FIP. Featuring cases of novel approaches and applications of Tech Mining and FIP, this volume will present frontier advances in ST&I text analytics that will be of interest to students, researchers, practitioners, scholars and policy makers in the fields of R&D planning, technology management, science policy and innovation strategy.

Foresight For Science Technology And Innovation

Author : Ian Miles
ISBN : 9783319325743
Genre : Science
File Size : 57. 67 MB
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​Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond “narrow” technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.

Observation Oriented Modeling

Author : James W. Grice
ISBN : 0123851955
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 65. 19 MB
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This book introduces a new data analysis technique that addresses long standing criticisms of the current standard statistics. Observation Oriented Modelling presents the mathematics and techniques underlying the new method, discussing causality, modelling, and logical hypothesis testing. Examples of how to approach and interpret data using OOM are presented throughout the book, including analysis of several classic studies in psychology. These analyses are conducted using comprehensive software for the Windows operating system. Describes the problems that statistics are meant to answer, why popularly used statistics often fail to fully answer the question, and how OOM overcomes these obstacles Chapters include examples of statistical analysis using OOM

The Evolution Of Strategic Foresight

Author : Tuomo Kuosa
ISBN : 9781317032496
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 50. 55 MB
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Embracing the theory and practice of strategic foresight and illuminating how different schools of thought regard its role in policy making, Tuomo Kuosa describes how something not traditionally considered an independent discipline, is steadily becoming one. In The Evolution of Strategic Foresight he explains how the practice of strategic foresight has long been closely associated with the military and politics. Linking strategic thinking more broadly to futurology, however, it is quite new. Since strategic foresight refers to the practice of generating analyses of alternative futures and strategies, based on available intelligence and foreknowledge, the practice can and should be applied to companies, business sectors, national and trans-national agencies of all descriptions, and to all aspects of public policy making. The author explains its practice in terms of structure, process, and knowledge domains, and examines its methodologies and systems, along with how strategic foresight can be used to produce better knowledge and be more effectively linked to policy making. Using examples from 30 different countries and with access to interviews and workshops involving key experts, The Evolution of Strategic Foresight will be valuable to scholars, educators, students engaged in strategy and future studies, long-range, public policy and urban planners, analysts; risk assessment experts, and consultants, managers and decision makers in many organisations, public and private.

Microeconomic Risk Management And Macroeconomic Stability

Author : Andreas Röthig
ISBN : 3642015654
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 59. 20 MB
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“The essence of a hedging contract is a coincident purchase and sale in two markets which are expected to behave in such a way that any loss realized in one will be offset by an equivalent gain in the other. If such behavior follows a perfect hedge has been effected. ” Hardy and Lyon (1923, p. 276). 1. 1 LiteratureReviewandMotivation In the traditional hedging literature, the two markets in which hedgers trade are spot and futures markets. The trader’s position in the spot market is generally considered as given. According to Johnson (1960), hedging can be meaningfully de?ned only if the spot market is regarded as the trader’s primary market. The futures market is used solely to counterbalance an existing position in the spot market. Speculators, in contrast, do not have a commitment in the spot market. They take on risk in futures markets in order to pro?t from expected price changes. The hedger synchronizes his trading activities in spot and futures markets in order to reduce spot risk. In the lit- ature this approach to hedging is labeled risk reduction concept. Risk reduction will be achieved if spot and futures prices move more or less in parallel. If prices are p- fectly correlated, risk is abolished, since losses in one market are perfectly offset by pro?ts in the other market. However, as Hardy and Lyon (1923) point out, any div- gence from perfect correlation results in an imperfect hedge.

Seeing The Future

Author : Kourken Michaelian
ISBN : 9780190241544
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 90. 57 MB
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Episodic memory is a major area of research in psychology. Initially viewed as a distinct store of information derived from experienced episodes, episodic memory is understood today as a form of mental "time travel" into the personal past. Recent research has revealed striking similarities between episodic memory-past-oriented mental time travel-and future-oriented mental time travel (FMTT). Seeing the Future: Theoretical Perspectives on Future-Oriented Mental Time Travel brings together leading contributors in both empirical and theoretical disciplines to present the first interdisciplinary look at the human ability to imagine future scenarios. Chapters focus on the challenging conceptual and theoretical questions raised by FMTT, covering themes such as: varieties of future-oriented cognition; relationships between FMTT and episodic memory; subjective temporality in FMTT; the self in FMTT; and functional, evolutionary and comparative, developmental, and clinical perspectives on FMTT. With its focus on the conceptual issues at the heart of fast-developing research on FMTT, this edited volume will serve graduate students to senior scholars working on or interested in FMTT and related areas as a synthesis of current theoretical thinking and a source of questions for future FMTT research.

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