irrational exuberance

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Irrational Exuberance

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 9781400865536
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 65. 28 MB
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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

Irrational Exuberance

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 0691173125
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 72. 8 MB
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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his "New York Times "bestseller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, "Irrational Exuberance" is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets--and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, "Irrational Exuberance" recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity--and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

Irrational Exuberance

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 0691166269
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 61. 44 MB
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The author argues that investor euphoria and discouragement can cause extreme fluctuations in the stock, bond, and housing markets and presents advice for investors on protecting themselves from future bubbles.

Toward Rational Exuberance

Author : B. Mark Smith
ISBN : 9781429930888
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 23. 15 MB
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The True History, and Dangerous Myths, of the Modern Stock Market. The stock market is big news now, influencing every aspect of the modern economy. Accepted wisdom has it that the market will provide retirement security for anyone willing to diligently save and invest.Yet many people can remember a time when the stock market was little more than a primitive insiders' game, viewed by most Americans with skepticism and suspicion. In Toward Rational Exuberance, B. Mark Smith, a professional stock trader with two decades of practical experience, tells the fascinating story of how this stunning transformation occurred. Smith traces the evolution of popular theories of stock market behavior, showing how they have become widely accepted over time. He also clarifies some of these theories -- such as the notion that the market is often susceptible to speculative "bubbles" that will inevitably burst -- and explains how they are based on faulty interpretations of market history. The central thesis of Toward Rational Exuberance is that the modern stock market is the product of a dynamic evolutionary process; it cannot be predicted by extrapolating arbitrary historical standards into the future. It is only by understanding the way the modern market has been created that today's investor can begin to understand the market itself.

Market Volatility

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 0262691515
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 30. 8 MB
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Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statisticalevidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standardefficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popularopinion or psychology can play in price volatility.Why does the stock market crash from time totime? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly makesurprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on thesequestions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretivematerial for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature,responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Includes is work authoredjointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel.MarketVolatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements forspeculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the realestate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis ofspeculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general.In studies of the October 1987 stock marketcrash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimedat collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in thosemodels. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data andbelieves that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearingno relation to fundamental shocks.Robert J. Shiller is Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics atthe Cowles Foundation, Yale University.

Finance And The Good Society

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 9781400846177
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 58. 62 MB
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The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. New York Times best-selling economist Robert Shiller is no apologist for the sins of finance--he is probably the only person to have predicted both the stock market bubble of 2000 and the real estate bubble that led up to the subprime mortgage meltdown. But in this important and timely book, Shiller argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. He makes a powerful case for recognizing that finance, far from being a parasite on society, is one of the most powerful tools we have for solving our common problems and increasing the general well-being. We need more financial innovation--not less--and finance should play a larger role in helping society achieve its goals. Challenging the public and its leaders to rethink finance and its role in society, Shiller argues that finance should be defined not merely as the manipulation of money or the management of risk but as the stewardship of society's assets. He explains how people in financial careers--from CEO, investment manager, and banker to insurer, lawyer, and regulator--can and do manage, protect, and increase these assets. He describes how finance has historically contributed to the good of society through inventions such as insurance, mortgages, savings accounts, and pensions, and argues that we need to envision new ways to rechannel financial creativity to benefit society as a whole. Ultimately, Shiller shows how society can once again harness the power of finance for the greater good.

The Death Of Money

Author : James Rickards
ISBN : 9781101637241
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 59. 28 MB
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The next financial collapse will resemble nothing in history. . . . Deciding upon the best course to follow will require comprehending a minefield of risks, while poised at a crossroads, pondering the death of the dollar. The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government. In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos. James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.

The Subprime Solution

Author : Robert J. Shiller
ISBN : 9780691156323
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 48. 18 MB
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A best-selling economist reveals the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis and puts forward bold measures to resolve it by restructuring the institutional foundations of the financial system in a thoughtful study by the author of Irrational Exuberance. First serial, The Atlantic.

Animal Spirits

Author : George A. Akerlof
ISBN : 1400834724
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 84. 51 MB
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The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits--the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time--unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.

Finance And The Behavioral Prospect

Author : James Ming Chen
ISBN : 9783319327112
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 67. 2 MB
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This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance, and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios are imbued with “affect.” Positive and negative emotions warp investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis. Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of security, potential, and aspiration.

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