modelling extremal events for insurance and finance stochastic modelling and applied probability

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Modelling Extremal Events

Author : Paul Embrechts
ISBN : 3540609318
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 31. 55 MB
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"A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS

Extreme Value Theory

Author : Laurens de Haan
ISBN : 9780387344713
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 47. 62 MB
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Focuses on theoretical results along with applications All the main topics covering the heart of the subject are introduced to the reader in a systematic fashion Concentration is on the probabilistic and statistical aspects of extreme values Excellent introduction to extreme value theory at the graduate level, requiring only some mathematical maturity

Heavy Tail Phenomena

Author : Sidney I. Resnick
ISBN : 9780387242729
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 39. 1 MB
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This comprehensive text gives an interesting and useful blend of the mathematical, probabilistic and statistical tools used in heavy-tail analysis. Heavy tails are characteristic of many phenomena where the probability of a single huge value impacts heavily. Record-breaking insurance losses, financial-log returns, files sizes stored on a server, transmission rates of files are all examples of heavy-tailed phenomena. Key features: * Unique text devoted to heavy-tails * Emphasizes both probability modeling and statistical methods for fitting models. Most treatments focus on one or the other but not both * Presents broad applicability of heavy-tails to the fields of data networks, finance (e.g., value-at- risk), insurance, and hydrology * Clear, efficient and coherent exposition, balancing theory and actual data to show the applicability and limitations of certain methods * Examines in detail the mathematical properties of the methodologies as well as their implementation in Splus or R statistical languages * Exposition driven by numerous examples and exercises Prerequisites for the reader include a prior course in stochastic processes and probability, some statistical background, some familiarity with time series analysis, and ability to use (or at least to learn) a statistics package such as R or Splus. This work will serve second-year graduate students and researchers in the areas of applied mathematics, statistics, operations research, electrical engineering, and economics.

An Introduction To Statistical Modeling Of Extreme Values

Author : Stuart Coles
ISBN : 9781447136750
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 50. 56 MB
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Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.

Statistical Analysis Of Extreme Values

Author : Rolf-Dieter Reiss
ISBN : 9783034863360
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 22. 33 MB
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The statistical analysis of extreme data is important for various disciplines, including hydrology, insurance, finance, engineering and environmental sciences. This book provides a self-contained introduction to the parametric modeling, exploratory analysis and statistical interference for extreme values. The entire text of this third edition has been thoroughly updated and rearranged to meet the new requirements. Additional sections and chapters, elaborated on more than 100 pages, are particularly concerned with topics like dependencies, the conditional analysis and the multivariate modeling of extreme data. Parts I–III about the basic extreme value methodology remain unchanged to some larger extent, yet notable are, e.g., the new sections about "An Overview of Reduced-Bias Estimation" (co-authored by M.I. Gomes), "The Spectral Decomposition Methodology", and "About Tail Independence" (co-authored by M. Frick), and the new chapter about "Extreme Value Statistics of Dependent Random Variables" (co-authored by H. Drees). Other new topics, e.g., a chapter about "Environmental Sciences", (co--authored by R.W. Katz), are collected within Parts IV–VI.

Extreme Value Distributions

Author : Samuel Kotz
ISBN : 9781860944024
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 54. 33 MB
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This important book provides an up-to-date comprehensive and down-to-earth survey of the theory and practice of extreme value distributions OCo one of the most prominent success stories of modern applied probability and statistics. Originated by E J Gumbel in the early forties as a tool for predicting floods, extreme value distributions evolved during the last 50 years into a coherent theory with applications in practically all fields of human endeavor where maximal or minimal values (the so-called extremes) are of relevance. The book is of usefulness both for a beginner with a limited probabilistic background and to expert in the field. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1.1: Historical Survey (139 KB). Chapter 1.2: The Three Types of Extreme Value Distributions (146 KB). Chapter 1.3: Limiting Distributions and Domain of Attraction (210 KB). Chapter 1.4: Distribution Function and Moments of Type 1 Distribution (160 KB). Chapter 1.5: Order Statistics, Record Values and Characterizations (175 KB). Contents: Univariate Extreme Value Distributions; Generalized Extreme Value Distributions; Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions. Readership: Applied probabilists, applied statisticians, environmental scientists, climatologists, industrial engineers and management experts."

Laws Of Small Numbers Extremes And Rare Events

Author : Michael Falk
ISBN : 9783034877916
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 84. 39 MB
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Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have seen increasing interest. Laws of Small Numbers gives a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. The new edition incorporates numerous new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory.

Financial Derivatives

Author : Jamil Baz
ISBN : 052181510X
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87. 99 MB
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This book offers a complete, succinct account of the principles of financial derivatives pricing. The first chapter provides readers with an intuitive exposition of basic random calculus. Concepts such as volatility and time, random walks, geometric Brownian motion, and Ito's lemma are discussed heuristically. The second chapter develops generic pricing techniques for assets and derivatives, determining the notion of a stochastic discount factor or pricing kernel, and then uses this concept to price conventional and exotic derivatives. The third chapter applies the pricing concepts to the special case of interest rate markets, namely, bonds and swaps, and discusses factor models and term structure consistent models. The fourth chapter deals with a variety of mathematical topics that underlie derivatives pricing and portfolio allocation decisions such as mean-reverting processes and jump processes and discusses related tools of stochastic calculus such as Kolmogorov equations, martingale techniques, stochastic control, and partial differential equations.

A Course In Credibility Theory And Its Applications

Author : Hans Bühlmann
ISBN : 9783540292739
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 51. 34 MB
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This book is ideal for practicing experts in particular actuaries in the field of property-casualty insurance, life insurance, reinsurance and insurance supervision, as well as teachers and students. It provides an exploration of Credibility Theory, covering most aspects of this topic from the simplest case to the most detailed dynamic model. The book closely examines the tasks an actuary encounters daily: estimation of loss ratios, claim frequencies and claim sizes.

Extreme Events In Finance

Author : Francois Longin
ISBN : 9781118650196
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 34. 80 MB
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A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: • Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management • Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets • Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study • Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance. François Longin, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Finance at ESSEC Business School, France. He has been working on the applications of extreme value theory to financial markets for many years, and his research has been applied by financial institutions in the risk management area including market, credit, and operational risks. His research works can be found in scientific journals such as The Journal of Finance. Dr. Longin is currently a financial consultant with expertise covering risk management for financial institutions and portfolio management for asset management firms.

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