paradoxes in probability theory 0 springerbriefs in philosophy

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Paradoxes In Probability Theory

Author : William Eckhardt
ISBN : 9789400751408
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 31. 52 MB
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Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.​

Belief Evidence And Uncertainty

Author : Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay
ISBN : 9783319277721
Genre : Science
File Size : 85. 31 MB
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This work breaks new ground by carefully distinguishing the concepts of belief, confirmation, and evidence and then integrating them into a better understanding of personal and scientific epistemologies. It outlines a probabilistic framework in which subjective features of personal knowledge and objective features of public knowledge have their true place. It also discusses the bearings of some statistical theorems on both formal and traditional epistemologies while showing how some of the existing paradoxes in both can be resolved with the help of this framework.This book has two central aims: First, to make precise a distinction between the concepts of confirmation and evidence and to argue that failure to recognize this distinction is the source of certain otherwise intractable epistemological problems. The second goal is to demonstrate to philosophers the fundamental importance of statistical and probabilistic methods, at stake in the uncertain conditions in which for the most part we lead our lives, not simply to inferential practice in science, where they are now standard, but to epistemic inference in other contexts as well. Although the argument is rigorous, it is also accessible. No technical knowledge beyond the rudiments of probability theory, arithmetic, and algebra is presupposed, otherwise unfamiliar terms are always defined and a number of concrete examples are given. At the same time, fresh analyses are offered with a discussion of statistical and epistemic reasoning by philosophers. This book will also be of interest to scientists and statisticians looking for a larger view of their own inferential techniques.The book concludes with a technical appendix which introduces an evidential approach to multi-model inference as an alternative to Bayesian model averaging.

How To Do Science With Models

Author : Axel Gelfert
ISBN : 9783319279541
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 49. 96 MB
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Taking scientific practice as its starting point, this book charts the complex territory of models used in science. It examines what scientific models are and what their function is. Reliance on models is pervasive in science, and scientists often need to construct models in order to explain or predict anything of interest at all. The diversity of kinds of models one finds in science – ranging from toy models and scale models to theoretical and mathematical models – has attracted attention not only from scientists, but also from philosophers, sociologists, and historians of science. This has given rise to a wide variety of case studies that look at the different uses to which models have been put in specific scientific contexts. By exploring current debates on the use and building of models via cutting-edge examples drawn from physics and biology, the book provides broad insight into the methodology of modelling in the natural sciences. It pairs specific arguments with introductory material relating to the ontology and the function of models, and provides some historical context to the debates as well as a sketch of general positions in the philosophy of scientific models in the process.

Effective Parameters Of Hydrogeological Models

Author : Vikenti Gorokhovski
ISBN : 9783319035697
Genre : Science
File Size : 76. 63 MB
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Geological models used in predictive hydrogeological modeling are not exact replicas of the objects they represent: many details related to structures and properties of the objects remain unknown. Those details may considerably affect simulation results. A provable evaluation of the uncertainty of hydrogeological and solute transport simulations are almost impossible. In this book the author describes how to obtain the best-possible results in simulations, based on the available data and predefined criteria that are turned into transforming mechanisms. The latter are mathematical expressions for evaluating model parameters supporting effective simulations. Examples of the mechanisms as well as methods of their evaluation are provided in this book. It is also shown how these mechanisms can be used for the interpretation of hydrogeological data. The first edition of this book was published in the series Springer Briefs in Earth Sciences.

Wavelets In Functional Data Analysis

Author : Pedro A. Morettin
ISBN : 9783319596235
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 47 MB
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Wavelet-based procedures are key in many areas of statistics, applied mathematics, engineering, and science. This book presents wavelets in functional data analysis, offering a glimpse of problems in which they can be applied, including tumor analysis, functional magnetic resonance and meteorological data. Starting with the Haar wavelet, the authors explore myriad families of wavelets and how they can be used. High-dimensional data visualization (using Andrews' plots), wavelet shrinkage (a simple, yet powerful, procedure for nonparametric models) and a selection of estimation and testing techniques (including a discussion on Stein’s Paradox) make this a highly valuable resource for graduate students and experienced researchers alike.

Stakeholder Theory

Author : Maria Bonnafous-Boucher
ISBN : 9783319443560
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 56. 7 MB
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This book provides an academic introduction to, and presentation and defence of stakeholder theory as a model for the strategic management of businesses and corporations, as well as of public organizations and institutions. The concept of the stakeholder is generally applied to parties that affect or are affected by the activities of private or public organizations. Distinct from shareholders, stakeholders are those individuals, entities or communities that have a connection with the activities of a corporation, a firm or an organization. The notion of the stakeholder is intimately linked to a conception of the business firm as an entity founded on negotiated governance, in which the maximization of value for the shareholder is not the ultimate criterion. In this model, issues and interests that are not directly associated with shareholders and investors, but which go beyond capital to encompass the concerns of civil society, are considered to be of central importance. This book provides a broad overview of stakeholder theory, presenting it as an ethical approach to strategic management that is both pragmatic and applicable to developing democratic practices within corporations, while at the same time suggesting ways in which elements of a social contract can be elaborated within the context of globalization.

Beyond Safety Training

Author : Corinne Bieder
ISBN : 9783319655277
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 85. 35 MB
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This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book investigates why, despite more and more resources devoted to safety training, expectations are not entirely met, particularly in the industrial sectors that have already achieved a high safety level. It not only reflects the most precious viewpoints of experts from different disciplines, different countries, with experiences in various industrial fields at the cutting edge of theories and practices in terms of safety, professionalization and their relationships. It also consolidates the positioning of the Foundation for an Industrial Safety Culture, highlighting what is currently considered at stake in terms of safety training, taking into account the system of constraints the different stakeholders are submitted to. It reports some success stories as well as elements which could explain the observed plateau in terms of outcome. It identifies some levers for evolution for at-risk industry and outlines a possible research agenda to go further with experimental solutions.

Practical Applications Of The Philosophy Of Science

Author : Peter Truran
ISBN : 9783319004525
Genre : Science
File Size : 24. 18 MB
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Explores the practical applicability of the philosophy of science to scientific research, but also considers its relevance to practice within the realms of technology, design, crafts, and even within the world of arts and the humanities. The attempt to engage working scientists with the issues raised by the philosophy of science may profitably be extended to examine its applicability to any other fields of knowledge that encompass a problem-solving dimension. Drawing on his experience as a research and development scientist in the biomedical device industry, the author shows how the principles of the philosophy of science illuminate the research process. The book is structured on the concept of the inspirational text; it consists of short chapters, each of which provides an accessible discussion of an aspect of the philosophy of science. Each chapter concludes with a list of practical pointers towards the development of attitudes and skills which will benefit the student researcher. ​

Understanding Policy Decisions

Author : Bruno Dente
ISBN : 9783319025209
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 21. 34 MB
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This book proposes a model for understanding how innovative policy decisions are taken in complex political and organizational systems as well as the possible strategies that the promoter of the innovation can employ in order to maximize the probability of successful adoption and implementation. It presents a conceptual framework for the analysis of decisional situations in order to design the most appropriate strategies for overcoming conflict (e.g. of the NIMBY variety) and/or increasing the engagement of potentially interested actors. The book includes a template for decisional case studies, a protocol for the definition of a decisional strategy, and an exercise in decisional analysis.

Navigating Safety

Author : René Amalberti
ISBN : 9789400765498
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 35. 84 MB
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Managing safety in a professional environment requires constant negotiation with other competitive dimensions of risk management (finances, market and political drivers, manpower and social crisis). This is obvious, although generally not said in safety manuals. The book provides a unique vision of how to best find these compromises, starting with lessons learnt from natural risk management by individuals, then applying them to the craftsman industry, complex industrial systems (civil aviation, nuclear energy) and public services (like transportation and medicine). It offers a unique, illustrated, easy to read and scientifically based set of original concepts and pragmatic methods to revisit safety management and adopt a successful system vision. As such, and with illustrations coming from many various fields (aviation, fishing, nuclear, oil, medicine), it potentially covers a broad readership.

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