principles of risk analysis decision making under uncertainty

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Principles Of Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
ISBN : 9781439857502
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 87. 45 MB
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Primer On Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
ISBN : 9781439857649
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 52. 3 MB
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis—the "how to." Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Principles Of Risk Analysis

Author : Charles Yoe
ISBN : 9780429667619
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 34. 44 MB
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The field of risk science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to several significant changes in the market. The changes identified will be addressed through the addition of several new chapters. The language will be updated throughout the text and the book features several areas of expansion. As before, this book will continue to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions. Remaining a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners will remain a hallmark of this book.

Project Valuation And Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty Applying Decision Tree Analysis And Monte Carlo Simulation

Author : Donald Dibra
ISBN : 9783734755439
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 30. 92 MB
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This work presents the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach when dealing with the economic valuation of projects which are subjected to risks and uncertainties. The Net Present Value of a project is usually used as an investment decision parameter. Using deterministic models to calculate a project’s Net Present Value neglects the risky and uncertain nature of real life projects and consequently leads to useless valuation results. Realistic valuation models need to use probability density distributions for the input parameters and certain probabilities for the occurrence of specific events during the life time of a project in combination with the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach. After a short introduction a brief explanation of the traditional project valuation methods is given. The main focus of this work lies in using the Net Present Value method as a basic valuation tool in conjunction with the Monte Carlo Simulation technique and the Decision Tree Analysis approach to form a comprehensive method for project valuation under risk and uncertainty. The extensive project valuation methodology introduced is applied on two fictional projects, one from the pharmaceutical sector and one from the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Both industries deal with high risks, high uncertainties and high costs, but also high rewards. The example from the pharmaceutical industry illustrates very well how the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis method, results in a well-diversified portfolio of new drugs with the highest reward at minimum possible risk. Applying the presented probabilistic project valuation approach on the oil exploration and production project shows how to reduce the risk of losing big.

Misconceptions Of Risk

Author : Terje Aven
ISBN : 9781119964285
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 71. 53 MB
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We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.

Foundations Of Risk Analysis

Author : Terje Aven
ISBN : 9781119945789
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 84. 57 MB
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Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry

Author : Glenn Koller
ISBN : 9781420035056
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 36. 35 MB
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Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, implementation processes, technical aspects, and examples of application. Each section provides practical guidance, combining technical information with advice on how to implement R/U techniques and processes in real-world corporate environments. Following an examination of general principles involved in quantitatively assessing risks and their impact on value, the book describes the two main probabilistic measures of project value - Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP). The text clearly demonstrates how these metrics are used in individual-project and portfolio management. By presenting concepts in layman's terms and fully integrating advice related to technical and human characteristics of R/U-related corporate life, this book serves as a complete primer for professionals in any business environment. What's New in the Second Edition: Provides guidance for implementation of R/U processes in modern corporations Offers a crucial breakthrough by defining the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" in ways that can be applied in all aspects of science and business Explores real-world impediments to process change and implementation Addresses R/U from a corporate decision-maker's perspective, detailing how to employ R/U to set budgets, manage portfolios, value investments, and execute other critical tasks

A Study Of Business Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Andreas Stark
ISBN : 9781599423494
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 84. 7 MB
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This dissertation will discuss the uncertainty encountered in the daily operations of businesses. The concepts will be developed by first giving an overview of probability and statistics as used in our everyday activities, such as the basic principles of probability, univariate and multivariate statistics, data clustering and mapping, as well as time sequence and spectral analysis. The examples used will be from the oil and gas exploration industry because the risks taken in this industry are normally quite large and are ideal for showing the application of the various techniques for minimizing risk. Subsequently, the discussion will deal with basic risk analysis, spatial and time variations of risk, geotechnical risk analysis, risk aversion and how it is affected by personal biases, and how to use portfolios to hedge risk together with the application of real options. Next, fractal analysis and its application to economics and risk analysis will be examined, followed by some examples showing the change in the Value at Risk under Fractal Brownian Motions. Finally, a neural network application is shown whereby some of these risks and risk factors will be combined to forecast the best possible outcome given a certain knowledge base. The chapters will discuss: Basic probability techniques and uncertainty principles Analysis and diversification for exploration projects The value and risk of information in the decision process Simulation techniques and modeling of uncertainty Project valuation and project risk return Modeling risk propensity or preference analysis of exploration projects Application of fractals to risk analysis Simultaneous prediction of strategic risk and decision attributes using multivariate statistics and neural networks"

Environmental Risk Management

Author : Paul Pritchard
ISBN : 9781136544323
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 63. 48 MB
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This timely publication considers recent developments in environmental risk management as they relate to commercial organizations, including risk transfer through insurance. It starts by looking at characterization of risks based on the hazard-pathway-receptor principles, emphasizing the importance of site specific factors. Environmental risks are increasingly considered as a part of strategic control assessment. Checklists and case studies are presented to assist in review and assessment of environmental risks. Further guidance is offered for decision making under uncertainty, showing the potential of tools such as Monte Carlo analysis and fuzzy logic, and leading to a review of risk assessment and management frameworks. Environmental Risk Management is an accessible and valuable reference to those from a range of backgrounds - including occupational hygiene, safety, quality personnel and operational managers - who are dealing with environmental issues within their organization.

Applied Data Analysis And Modeling For Energy Engineers And Scientists

Author : T. Agami Reddy
ISBN : 1441996133
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 28. 33 MB
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Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists fills an identified gap in engineering and science education and practice for both students and practitioners. It demonstrates how to apply concepts and methods learned in disparate courses such as mathematical modeling, probability,statistics, experimental design, regression, model building, optimization, risk analysis and decision-making to actual engineering processes and systems. The text provides a formal structure that offers a basic, broad and unified perspective,while imparting the knowledge, skills and confidence to work in data analysis and modeling. This volume uses numerous solved examples, published case studies from the author’s own research, and well-conceived problems in order to enhance comprehension levels among readers and their understanding of the “processes”along with the tools.

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