realistic simulation of financial markets analyzing market behaviors by the third mode of science evolutionary economics and social complexity science

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Realistic Simulation Of Financial Markets

Author : Hajime Kita
ISBN : 9784431550570
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 82. 10 MB
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This book takes up unique agent-based approaches to solving problems related to stock and their derivative markets. Toward this end, the authors have worked for more than 15 years on the development of an artificial market simulator called U-Mart for use as a research and educational tool. A noteworthy feature of the U-Mart simulator compared to other artificial market simulators is that U-Mart is an ultra-realistic artificial stock and their derivative market simulator. For example, it can simulate “arrowhead,” a next-generation trading system used in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other major markets, as it takes into consideration the institutional design of the entire market. Another interesting feature of the U-Mart simulator is that it permits both human and computer programs to participate simultaneously as traders in the artificial market. In this book, first the details of U-Mart are explained, enabling readers to install and run the simulator on their computers for research and educational purposes. The simulator thus can be used for gaming simulation of the artificial market and even for users as agents to implement their own trading strategies for agent-based simulation (ABS).The book also presents selected research cases using the U-Mart simulator. Here, topics include automated acquisition of trading strategy using artificial intelligence techniques, evaluation of a market maker system to treat thin markets such as those for small and regional businesses, systemic risk analysis of the financial market considering institutional design of the market, and analysis of how humans behave and learn in gaming simulation. New perspectives on artificial market research are provided, and the power, potential, and challenge of ABS are discussed. As explained in this important work, ABS is considered to be an effective tool as the third approach of social science, an alternative to traditional literary and mathematical approaches.

Modeling Complexity In Economic And Social Systems

Author : Frank Schweitzer
ISBN : 9789814488358
Genre : Science
File Size : 43. 12 MB
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Economics and the social sciences are, in fact, the “hard” sciences, as Herbert Simon argued, because the complexity of the problems dealt with cannot simply be reduced to analytically solvable models or decomposed into separate subprocesses. Nevertheless, in recent years, the emerging interdisciplinary “sciences of complexity” have provided new methods and tools for tackling these problems, ranging from complex data analysis to sophisticated computer simulations. In particular, advanced methods developed in the natural sciences have recently also been applied to social and economic problems. The twenty-one chapters of this book reflect this modern development from various modeling perspectives (such as agent-based models, evolutionary game theory, reinforcement learning and neural network techniques, time series analysis, non-equilibrium macroscopic dynamics) and for a broad range of socio-economic applications (market dynamics, technological evolution, spatial dynamics and economic growth, decision processes, and agent societies). They jointly demonstrate a shift of perspective in economics and the social sciences that is allowing a new outlook in this field to emerge. Contents:Market Dynamics:Trading Behavior and Excess Volatility in Toy Markets (M Marsili & D Challet)Percolation Models of Financial Market Dynamics (D Stauffer)Electrodynamical Model of Quasi-Efficient Financial Markets (K N Ilinski & A S Stepanenko)Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates (G Zimmermann et al.)Forecasting Price Increments Using an Artificial Neural Network (F Castiglione)Spectral Regularization, Data Complexity and Agent Behavior (A Ilyinsky)Technological Evolution:Dynamics of Economic and Technological Search Processes in Complex Adaptive Landscapes (W Ebeling et al.)New Results in a Self-Organized Model of Technological Evolution (A Arenas et al.)Firms' Decision-Making Process in an Evolutionary Model of Industrial Dynamics (W Kwasnicki)Spatial Dynamics and Economic Growth:Modelling Migration and Economic Agglomeration with Active Brownian Particles (F Schweitzer)The Evolution of Industrial Clusters — Simulating Spatial Dynamics (T Brenner & N Weigelt)The Growth Dynamics of German Business Firms (J Voit)A Dynamic Theory of a Firm: An Application of ‘Economic Forces’ (M Estola)Decision Processes:Adaptive Platform Dynamics in Multi-Party Spatial Voting (B M R Stadler)Subtle Nonlinearity in Popular Album Charts (R A Bentley & H D G Maschner)Dynamical Aspects in the Adoption of Agri-Environmental Measures (G Weisbuch & G Boudjema)Collective Choice and Mutual Knowledge Structures (D Richards et al.)Agent Societies:Evolutionary Study of Interethnic Co-Operation (V Kvasnicka & J Pospichal)Coalition Factor in the Evolution of Non-Kin Altruism (J-L Dessalles)Optimal Payoff Functions for Members of Collectives (D H Wolpert & K Tumer)A Day at the Beach: Human Agents Self-Organizing on the Sand Pile (H Ishii et al.) Readership: Researchers in the field of complex system science, economists, sociologists, physicists with an interdisciplinary focus, graduates, and professionals. Keywords:

An Evolutionary Theory Of Economic Change

Author : Richard R. Nelson
ISBN : 0674041437
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 85. 63 MB
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This book contains the most sustained and serious attack on mainstream, neoclassical economics in more than forty years. Nelson and Winter focus their critique on the basic question of how firms and industries change overtime. They marshal significant objections to the fundamental neoclassical assumptions of profit maximization and market equilibrium, which they find ineffective in the analysis of technological innovation and the dynamics of competition among firms. To replace these assumptions, they borrow from biology the concept of natural selection to construct a precise and detailed evolutionary theory of business behavior. They grant that films are motivated by profit and engage in search for ways of improving profits, but they do not consider them to be profit maximizing. Likewise, they emphasize the tendency for the more profitable firms to drive the less profitable ones out of business, but they do not focus their analysis on hypothetical states of industry equilibrium. The results of their new paradigm and analytical framework are impressive. Not only have they been able to develop more coherent and powerful models of competitive firm dynamics under conditions of growth and technological change, but their approach is compatible with findings in psychology and other social sciences. Finally, their work has important implications for welfare economics and for government policy toward industry.

Handbook Of Computational Economics

Author : Karl Schmedders
ISBN : 9780080931784
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73. 92 MB
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Handbook of Computational Economics summarizes recent advances in economic thought, revealing some of the potential offered by modern computational methods. With computational power increasing in hardware and algorithms, many economists are closing the gap between economic practice and the frontiers of computational mathematics. In their efforts to accelerate the incorporation of computational power into mainstream research, contributors to this volume update the improvements in algorithms that have sharpened econometric tools, solution methods for dynamic optimization and equilibrium models, and applications to public finance, macroeconomics, and auctions. They also cover the switch to massive parallelism in the creation of more powerful computers, with advances in the development of high-power and high-throughput computing. Much more can be done to expand the value of computational modeling in economics. In conjunction with volume one (1996) and volume two (2006), this volume offers a remarkable picture of the recent development of economics as a science as well as an exciting preview of its future potential. Samples different styles and approaches, reflecting the breadth of computational economics as practiced today Focuses on problems with few well-developed solutions in the literature of other disciplines Emphasizes the potential for increasing the value of computational modeling in economics

Agent Based Models

Author : Domenico Delli Gatti
ISBN : 9781108243988
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 48. 9 MB
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In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, labour markets, and economic growth.

Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists

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File Size : 45. 32 MB
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The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.

Why Stock Markets Crash

Author : Didier Sornette
ISBN : 9781400885091
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 62. 77 MB
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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

An Essay On The Nature And Significance Of Economic Science

Author : Lionel Robbins
ISBN : 9781610160391
Genre : Economics
File Size : 24. 38 MB
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This book by Lionel Robbins first appeared in 1932 as an outstanding English-language statement of the Misesian view of economic method, namely that economics is a social science and must advance its propositions by means of deductive reasoning and not through the methods used in the natural sciences. The case is argued here with patience and attention to scholarly details. The unfortunate second edition of this book, which is more available today, introduces confusions by departing from Austrian microeconomic theory. Thus does the Mises Institute celebrate the 75th anniversary of the first edition with this reprint. "Reading Robbins," writes Samuel Bostaph of the University of Dallas, "is an excellent way of contrasting his explanation of the basic nature of economics with that of the Austrian School, as found in the work of Mises as an extension of Carl Mengers's foundations. Such a reading wonderfully clarifies one’s understanding of the basic conception of economics as a science of human action, rather than one of mere 'economizing.' "

Simulation For The Social Scientist

Author : Gilbert, Nigel
ISBN : 0335216005
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 61. 25 MB
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Social sciences -- Simulation methods. Social interaction -- Computer simulation. Social sciences -- Mathematical models. (publisher)

Agent Based Modelling In Economics

Author : Lynne Hamill
ISBN : 9781118456071
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 75 MB
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Agent–based modelling in economics Lynne Hamill and Nigel Gilbert, Centre for Research in Social Simulation (CRESS), University of Surrey, UK New methods of economic modelling have been sought as a result of the global economic downturn in 2008.This unique book highlights the benefits of an agent–based modelling (ABM) approach. It demonstrates how ABM can easily handle complexity: heterogeneous people, households and firms interacting dynamically. Unlike traditional methods, ABM does not require people or firms to optimise or economic systems to reach equilibrium. ABM offers a way to link micro foundations directly to the macro situation. Key features: Introduces the concept of agent–based modelling and shows how it differs from existing approaches. Provides a theoretical and methodological rationale for using ABM in economics, along with practical advice on how to design and create the models. Each chapter starts with a short summary of the relevant economic theory and then shows how to apply ABM. Explores both topics covered in basic economics textbooks and current important policy themes; unemployment, exchange rates, banking and environmental issues. Describes the models in pseudocode, enabling the reader to develop programs in their chosen language. Supported by a website featuring the NetLogo models described in the book. Agent–based Modelling in Economics provides students and researchers with the skills to design, implement, and analyze agent–based models. Third year undergraduate, master and doctoral students, faculty and professional economists will find this book an invaluable resource.

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