subjective probability the real thing

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Subjective Probability

Author : Richard Jeffrey
ISBN : 0521536685
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 71. 55 MB
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A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.

Theories Of Scientific Method

Author : Robert Nola
ISBN : 9781317493495
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 73. 86 MB
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What is it to be scientific? Is there such a thing as scientific method? And if so, how might such methods be justified? Robert Nola and Howard Sankey seek to provide answers to these fundamental questions in their exploration of the major recent theories of scientific method. Although for many scientists their understanding of method is something they just pick up in the course of being trained, Nola and Sankey argue that it is possible to be explicit about what this tacit understanding of method is, rather than leave it as some unfathomable mystery. They robustly defend the idea that there is such a thing as scientific method and show how this might be legitimated. This book begins with the question of what methodology might mean and explores the notions of values, rules and principles, before investigating how methodologists have sought to show that our scientific methods are rational. Part 2 of this book sets out some principles of inductive method and examines its alternatives including abduction, IBE, and hypothetico-deductivism. Part 3 introduces probabilistic modes of reasoning, particularly Bayesianism in its various guises, and shows how it is able to give an account of many of the values and rules of method. Part 4 considers the ideas of philosophers who have proposed distinctive theories of method such as Popper, Lakatos, Kuhn and Feyerabend and Part 5 continues this theme by considering philosophers who have proposed naturalised theories of method such as Quine, Laudan and Rescher. This book offers readers a comprehensive introduction to the idea of scientific method and a wide-ranging discussion of how historians of science, philosophers of science and scientists have grappled with the question over the last fifty years.

Cambridge And Vienna

Author : Maria C. Galavotti
ISBN : 1402041004
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 59. 38 MB
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The Institute Vienna Circle held a conference in Vienna in 2003, Cambridge and Vienna – Frank P. Ramsey and the Vienna Circle, to commemorate the philosophical and scientific work of Frank Plumpton Ramsey (1903–1930). This Ramsey conference provided not only historical and biographical perspectives on one of the most gifted thinkers of the Twentieth Century, but also new impulses for further research on at least some of the topics pioneered by Ramsey, whose interest and potential are greater than ever. Ramsey did pioneering work in several fields, practitioners of which rarely know of his important work in other fields: philosophy of logic and theory of language, foundations of mathematics, mathematics, probability theory, methodology of science, philosophy of psychology, and economics. There was a focus on the one topic which was of strongest mutual concern to Ramsey and the Vienna Circle, namely the question of foundations of mathematics, in particular the status of logicism. Although the major scientific connection linking Ramsey with Austria is his work on logic, to which the Vienna Circle dedicated several meetings, certainly the connection which is of greater general interest concerns Ramsey's visits and discussions with Wittgenstein. Ramsey was the only important thinker to actually visit Wittgenstein during his school-teaching career in Puchberg and Ottertal in the 1920s, in Lower Austria; and later, Ramsey was instrumental in getting Wittgenstein positions at Cambridge.

Autonomic And Trusted Computing

Author : Bing Xie
ISBN : 9783642165764
Genre : Computers
File Size : 65. 24 MB
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Computing systems including hardware, software, communication, and networks are becoming increasingly large and heterogeneous. In short, they have become - creasingly complex. Such complexity is getting even more critical with the ubiquitous permeation of embedded devices and other pervasive systems. To cope with the growing and ubiquitous complexity, autonomic computing (AC) focuses on self-manageable computing and communication systems that exhibit self-awareness, self-configuration, self-optimization, self-healing, self-protection and other self-* properties to the maximum extent possible without human intervention or guidance. Organic computing (OC) additionally addresses adaptability, robustness, and c- trolled emergence as well as nature-inspired concepts for self-organization. Any autonomic or organic system must be trustworthy to avoid the risk of losing control and retain confidence that the system will not fail. Trust and/or distrust relationships in the Internet and in pervasive infrastructures are key factors to enable dynamic interaction and cooperation of various users, systems, and services. Trusted/ trustworthy computing (TC) aims at making computing and communication systems––as well as services––available, predictable, traceable, controllable, asse- able, sustainable, dependable, persistent, security/privacy protectable, etc. A series of grand challenges exists to achieve practical autonomic or organic s- tems with truly trustworthy services. Started in 2005, ATC conferences have been held at Nagasaki (Japan), Vienna (Austria), Three Gorges (China), Hong Kong (China), Oslo (Norway) and Brisbane (Australia). The 2010 proceedings contain the papers presented at the 7th International Conference on Autonomic and Trusted Computing (ATC 2010), held in Xi’an, China, October 26–29, 2010.

The Routledge Handbook Of Philosophy Of Information

Author : Luciano Floridi
ISBN : 9781317633495
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 45. 14 MB
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Information and communication technology occupies a central place in the modern world, with society becoming increasingly dependent on it every day. It is therefore unsurprising that it has become a growing subject area in contemporary philosophy, which relies heavily on informational concepts. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is an outstanding reference source to the key topics and debates in this exciting subject and is the first collection of its kind. Comprising over thirty chapters by a team of international contributors the Handbook is divided into four parts: basic ideas quantitative and formal aspects natural and physical aspects human and semantic aspects. Within these sections central issues are examined, including probability, the logic of information, informational metaphysics, the philosophy of data and evidence, and the epistemic value of information. The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Information is essential reading for students and researchers in philosophy, computer science and communication studies.

Philosophical Lectures On Probability

Author : Bruno de Finetti
ISBN : 9781402082016
Genre : Science
File Size : 29. 76 MB
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Bruno de Finetti (1906–1985) is the founder of the subjective interpretation of probability, together with the British philosopher Frank Plumpton Ramsey. His related notion of “exchangeability” revolutionized the statistical methodology. This book (based on a course held in 1979) explains in a language accessible also to non-mathematicians the fundamental tenets and implications of subjectivism, according to which the probability of any well specified fact F refers to the degree of belief actually held by someone, on the ground of her whole knowledge, on the truth of the assertion that F obtains.

Probability

Author : Darrell P. Rowbottom
ISBN : 9781509500208
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 50. 3 MB
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When a doctor tells you there?s a one percent chance that an operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good theoretical and practical choices. In this engaging and highly accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major interpretations of probability, with reference to real-world situations. In lucid prose, he explores the many fallacies of probabilistic reasoning, such as the ?gambler?s fallacy? and the ?inverse fallacy?, and shows how we can avoid falling into these traps by using the interpretations presented. He also illustrates the relevance of the interpretation of probability across disciplinary boundaries, by examining which interpretations of probability are appropriate in diverse areas such as quantum mechanics, game theory, and genetics. Using entertaining dialogues to draw out the key issues at stake, this unique book will appeal to students and scholars across philosophy, the social sciences, and the natural sciences.

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