subjective probability the real thing

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Subjective Probability

Author : Richard Jeffrey
ISBN : 0521536685
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 83. 69 MB
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A concise survey of basic probability theory from a thoroughly subjective point of view.

Cambridge And Vienna

Author : Maria C. Galavotti
ISBN : 1402041004
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 85. 76 MB
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The Institute Vienna Circle held a conference in Vienna in 2003, Cambridge and Vienna – Frank P. Ramsey and the Vienna Circle, to commemorate the philosophical and scientific work of Frank Plumpton Ramsey (1903–1930). This Ramsey conference provided not only historical and biographical perspectives on one of the most gifted thinkers of the Twentieth Century, but also new impulses for further research on at least some of the topics pioneered by Ramsey, whose interest and potential are greater than ever. Ramsey did pioneering work in several fields, practitioners of which rarely know of his important work in other fields: philosophy of logic and theory of language, foundations of mathematics, mathematics, probability theory, methodology of science, philosophy of psychology, and economics. There was a focus on the one topic which was of strongest mutual concern to Ramsey and the Vienna Circle, namely the question of foundations of mathematics, in particular the status of logicism. Although the major scientific connection linking Ramsey with Austria is his work on logic, to which the Vienna Circle dedicated several meetings, certainly the connection which is of greater general interest concerns Ramsey's visits and discussions with Wittgenstein. Ramsey was the only important thinker to actually visit Wittgenstein during his school-teaching career in Puchberg and Ottertal in the 1920s, in Lower Austria; and later, Ramsey was instrumental in getting Wittgenstein positions at Cambridge.

Theories Of Scientific Method

Author : Robert Nola
ISBN : 9781317493495
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 79. 43 MB
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What is it to be scientific? Is there such a thing as scientific method? And if so, how might such methods be justified? Robert Nola and Howard Sankey seek to provide answers to these fundamental questions in their exploration of the major recent theories of scientific method. Although for many scientists their understanding of method is something they just pick up in the course of being trained, Nola and Sankey argue that it is possible to be explicit about what this tacit understanding of method is, rather than leave it as some unfathomable mystery. They robustly defend the idea that there is such a thing as scientific method and show how this might be legitimated. This book begins with the question of what methodology might mean and explores the notions of values, rules and principles, before investigating how methodologists have sought to show that our scientific methods are rational. Part 2 of this book sets out some principles of inductive method and examines its alternatives including abduction, IBE, and hypothetico-deductivism. Part 3 introduces probabilistic modes of reasoning, particularly Bayesianism in its various guises, and shows how it is able to give an account of many of the values and rules of method. Part 4 considers the ideas of philosophers who have proposed distinctive theories of method such as Popper, Lakatos, Kuhn and Feyerabend and Part 5 continues this theme by considering philosophers who have proposed naturalised theories of method such as Quine, Laudan and Rescher. This book offers readers a comprehensive introduction to the idea of scientific method and a wide-ranging discussion of how historians of science, philosophers of science and scientists have grappled with the question over the last fifty years.

Handbuch Metaphysik

Author : Markus Schrenk
ISBN : 9783476053657
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 42. 90 MB
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Metaphysik als die zentrale Disziplin der Philosophie befasst sich mit den grundsätzlichen Fragen nach dem Sein, dem Wesen der Dinge in der Welt und ihren Relationen zueinander. Ihre Einsichten bilden die Grundlage für zahlreiche andere, nicht nur philosophische Disziplinen. Das Handbuch umfasst ausgehend von der Frage, was es überhaupt gibt, sämtliche Teilbereiche der Metaphysik, vom Problem der Existenz über Raum und Zeit, Wissenschaftsmetaphysik, Logik und Semantik bis hin zur Frage nach dem Status der Metaphysik selbst. Es enthält zudem einen ausführlichen Überblick über die Geschichte und die Methoden metaphysischen Denkens.

Beweisw Rdigung Und Beweisma

Author : Mark Schweizer
ISBN : 3161536428
Genre : Law
File Size : 77. 69 MB
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Die gerichtliche Tatsachenfeststellung ist in ihrer praktischen Bedeutung kaum zu überschätzen, ihre gesetzliche Regelung jedoch ist rudimentär. In der Überzeugung, dass traditionelle Methoden der juristischen Hermeneutik nicht geeignet sind, dem Begriff der "freien Beweiswürdigung" Kontur zu verleihen, nähert sich Mark Schweizer dem Begriff mit Methoden der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie. Er zeigt, wie eine vollständig rationale Beweiswürdigungstheorie aussehen könnte und wie diese mit der tatsächlichen, intuitiven, richterlichen Überzeugungsbildung kontrastiert. Daraus resultieren Erkenntnisse, wie der Vorgang der Beweiswürdigung verbessert werden kann. Welchen Grad die richterliche Überzeugung zur Wahrheit strittiger Tatsachenbehauptungen erreichen muss, ehe in einem Zivilverfahren für die beweisbelastete Partei entschieden werden darf - gemeinhin als "Beweismaß" bezeichnet - untersucht der Autor in einem zweiten Teil aus der Perspektive der Entscheidungstheorie und kommt zu dem Schluss, dass ein striktes Festhalten am Regelbeweismaß der "persönlichen Gewissheit" nicht zu rechtfertigen ist.

Probability

Author : Darrell P. Rowbottom
ISBN : 9781509500208
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 85. 66 MB
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When a doctor tells you there?s a one percent chance that an operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good theoretical and practical choices. In this engaging and highly accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major interpretations of probability, with reference to real-world situations. In lucid prose, he explores the many fallacies of probabilistic reasoning, such as the ?gambler?s fallacy? and the ?inverse fallacy?, and shows how we can avoid falling into these traps by using the interpretations presented. He also illustrates the relevance of the interpretation of probability across disciplinary boundaries, by examining which interpretations of probability are appropriate in diverse areas such as quantum mechanics, game theory, and genetics. Using entertaining dialogues to draw out the key issues at stake, this unique book will appeal to students and scholars across philosophy, the social sciences, and the natural sciences.

Experts In Uncertainty

Author : Roger M. Cooke
ISBN : 0195362373
Genre : Science
File Size : 84. 50 MB
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This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management

Author : Keith Beven
ISBN : 9781783263127
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 26. 4 MB
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This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis. Contents:Introduction:Flood Risk Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Jim W Hall)Use of Models in Flood Risk Management (Keith Beven)Theoretical Perspectives:A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis (Keith Beven)Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty (R E Chandler)Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Jonathan Rougier)The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty (Keith Beven)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis:Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs (R E Chandler, V S Isham, P J Northrop, H S Wheater, C J Onof and N A Leith)Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis (Thomas R Kjeldsen, Rob Lamb and Sarka D Blazkova)Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values (C Keef)Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling (Paul D Bates, Florian Pappenberger and Renata J Romanowicz)Flood Defence Reliability Analysis (Pieter van Gelder and Han Vrijling)Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas (Slobodan Djordjević, Zoran Vojinović, Richard Dawson and Dragan A Savić)The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments (John Chatterton, Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Sally Priest)Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary (Jim W Hall, Hamish Harvey and Owen Tarrant)Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting:Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting (Albrecht H Weerts, Dong-Jun Seo, Micha Werner and John Schaake)A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Peter C Young, Renata J Romanowicz and Keith Beven)Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications (Kevin Sene, Albrecht H Weerts, Keith Beven, Robert J Moore, Chris Whitlow, Stefan Laeger and Richard Cross)Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the US National Weather Service (Robert Hartman and John Schaake)Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft FEWS Forecasting System (Micha Werner, Paolo Reggiani and Albrecht H Weerts)Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting (Kevin Horsburgh and Jonathan Flowerdew)Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk:Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk (Cíntia B Uvo and Robin T Clarke)Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk (Robert L Wilby, Hayley J Fowler and Bill Donovan)Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change (Stewart W Franks)Communicating Uncertainties:Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science (Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander and David Leedal) Readership: Hydrologists, civil engineers, meteorologists, flood risk managers, environmental scientists, hydraulic engineers and consultants. Key Features:Dedicated to the important problem of uncertainty in flood risk analysisTakes an applied perspective with a range of case studiesProvides a comprehensive coverage of uncertainties in flood risk analysis, including flood forecasting, simulation modeling and impacts assessmentKeywords:Floods;Flood Risk Management;Uncertainty Estimation;Flood Frequency;Rainfall Models

The Oxford Handbook Of Cognitive Literary Studies

Author : Lisa Zunshine
ISBN : 9780199978069
Genre : Literary Criticism
File Size : 58. 49 MB
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The Oxford handbook of cognitive literary studies' applies developments in cognitive science to a wide range of literary texts that span multiple historical periods and numerous national literary traditions. The volume is divided into five parts: (1) Narrative, History, Imagination; (2) Emotions and Empathy; (3) The New Unconscious; (4) Empirical and Qualitative Studies of Literature; and (5) Cognitive Theory and Literary Experience. Most notably, the volume features case studies representing not just North American and British literary traditions, but also Argentinian (Jorge Luis Borges, Julio Cortazar), Chinese (Cao Xueqin), Colombian (Garcia Marquez), Dominican (Junot Diaz), German (Theodore Fontane), French (Marcel Proust, Gustave Flaubert), Indian (Mirabai, Rabindranath Tagore, Kamala Markandaya, Mani Ratnam, Tito Mukhopadhyay), Mexican (Fernando del Paso), Polish (Krystof Kieslowski), Puerto Rican (Giannina Braschi), Russian (Lev Tolstoi), South African (J.M. Coetzee), and Spanish (Leopoldo Alas). Moreover, the volume will cover a variety of periods (e.g.,0.

Handbook Of Risk Theory

Author :
ISBN : 9789400714328
Genre : Risk
File Size : 21. 86 MB
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