the flaw of averages why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty

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The Flaw Of Averages

Author : Sam L. Savage
ISBN : 9781118373583
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 34. 29 MB
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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

20 Chance Of Rain

Author : Richard B. Jones
ISBN : 9781118116364
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 73. 51 MB
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There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.

Decision Making With Insight With Insight Xla 2 0 And Printed Access Card

Author : Sam L. Savage
ISBN : 1439043337
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 39. 35 MB
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Managing Martians

Author : Donna Shirley
ISBN : 9780307756831
Genre : Biography & Autobiography
File Size : 26. 26 MB
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Donna Shirley's 35-year career as an aerospace engineer reached a jubilant pinnacle in July 1997 when Sojourner--the solar-powered, self-guided, microwave-oven-sized rover--was seen exploring the Martian landscape in Pathfinder's spectacular images from the surface of the red planet. The event marked a milestone in space, but for Donna Shirley, the leader of the mostly male team that designed and built Sojourner--and the first woman ever to manage a NASA program--it marked a triumph of another kind. Managing Martians is Shirley's captivating memoir of a life and career spent reaching for the stars. From her seemingly outlandish aspiration at age ten to build aircraft, to abandoning high school Home Ec in favor of mechanical drawing, and, at sixteen, becoming a licensed pilot, Shirley defied expectations from the beginning. In a vivid narrative, rich with anecdotes and thrilling turning points, Shirley recounts the intense battles she waged to defend her vision and the ingenuity and resourcefulness of her committed team. Her moment-by-cliffhanging-moment account of Pathfinder's landing and Sojourner's first tentative foray across the sands of Mars brilliantly captures the fulfillment of a lifelong dream as it heralds a brave new era of space exploration. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Pulse

Author : Douglas W. Hubbard
ISBN : 1118063783
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 85. 71 MB
Format : PDF
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The ultimate guide to mining the Internet for real-time assessment of trends and data Showing how the Internet can be an incredible tool for businesses and others to measure trends in real time, Pulse describes tools for inexpensive and real time measurement methodologies businesses can start using right away. This timely book also puts this emerging science in perspective and explains how this new measurement instrument will profoundly change decision making in business and government. Shows how the Internet can be used as an incredibly powerful measurement tool Reveals how to mine the Internet to measure and forecast business progress Written by leading expert in business analytics and performance management Pulse reveals how the Internet is evolving into a tool for measuring and forecasting trends in society, the economy, public opinion and even public health and security. It is an absolutely essential book for every business leader to turn a powerful, underutilized tool to its complete potential.

Bayesian Methods For Management And Business

Author : Eugene D. Hahn
ISBN : 9781118637562
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 74. 58 MB
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HIGHLIGHTS THE USE OF BAYESIAN STATISTICS TO GAIN INSIGHTS FROM EMPIRICAL DATA Featuring an accessible approach, Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems demonstrates how Bayesian statistics can help to provide insights into important issues facing business and management. The book draws on multidisciplinary applications and examples and utilizes the freely available software WinBUGS and R to illustrate the integration of Bayesian statistics within data-rich environments. Computational issues are discussed and integrated with coverage of linear models, sensitivity analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and model comparison. In addition, more advanced models including hierarchal models, generalized linear models, and latent variable models are presented to further bridge the theory and application in real-world usage. Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems also features: Numerous real-world examples drawn from multiple management disciplines such as strategy, international business, accounting, and information systems An incremental skill-building presentation based on analyzing data sets with widely applicable models of increasing complexity An accessible treatment of Bayesian statistics that is integrated with a broad range of business and management issues and problems A practical problem-solving approach to illustrate how Bayesian statistics can help to provide insight into important issues facing business and management Bayesian Methods for Management and Business: Pragmatic Solutions for Real Problems is an important textbook for Bayesian statistics courses at the advanced MBA-level and also for business and management PhD candidates as a first course in methodology. In addition, the book is a useful resource for management scholars and practitioners as well as business academics and practitioners who seek to broaden their methodological skill sets.

Stealing Myspace

Author : Julia Angwin
ISBN : 158836769X
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 55. 54 MB
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A few years ago, MySpace.com was just an idea kicking around a Southern California spam mill. Scroll down to the present day and MySpace is one of the most visited Internet destinations in America, displaying more than 40 billion webpage views per month and generating nearly $1 billion annually for Rupert Murdoch’s online empire. Even by the standards of the Internet age, the MySpace saga is an astounding growth story, which climaxed with the site’s acquisition by Murdoch’s News Corporation in 2005 for a sum approaching one billion dollars. But more than that, it may be the defining drama of the digital era. In Stealing MySpace, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Julia Angwin chronicles the rise of this Internet powerhouse. With an unerring eye, Angwin details how MySpace took the Internet by storm by grabbing the best ideas from around the Web, encouraging pinup stars such as Tila Tequila to make their home on its pages and giving everyone freedom to experiment with online identities–including using somebody else’s identity. Stealing MySpace introduces us to the site’s founders, Chris DeWolfe and Tom Anderson, who dabbled in computer hacking, online pornography, spam, and spyware before starting MySpace. Although their street savvy, doggedness, and clubbing skills far eclipsed their tech prowess, they stumbled their way to success and soon found themselves at ground zero of a high-stakes war that pitted Rupert Murdoch against his frequent nemesis, the combative Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone. Angwin sheds light on the dizzying backroom deals that allowed Murdoch to snatch MySpace from Viacom’s grasp even as the MySpace founders remained in the dark about their own fate. Then she takes us inside the Murdoch empire as DeWolfe and Anderson lobby furiously to regain control of their creation. Venturing beyond the business aspects of the story, Angwin also explores the Internet culture, a voyeuristic world in which MySpace must stay one step ahead of amateur pornographers, sexual predators, and “spoofers” who set up fake profiles (Rupert Murdoch himself tolerates dozens of phony “Ruperts” on the site) and cope with the general excesses and sometimes illegal acts of a community of account holders equal in number to the population of Japan. In Stealing MySpace, Julia Angwin dishes on the epic real-world battle for control of a virtual empire. In a savvy, smart, fast-paced narrative reminiscent of Bryan Burrough and John Helyar’s Barbarians at the Gate and Michael Lewis’s The New New Thing, Stealing MySpace tells is the whole gripping story behind a breakout cultural phenomenon. From the Hardcover edition.

Seeking Wisdom

Author : Peter Bevelin
ISBN : 9163136864
Genre :
File Size : 86. 3 MB
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How Risky Is It Really Why Our Fears Don T Always Match The Facts

Author : David Ropeik
ISBN : 0071635645
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 27. 93 MB
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"Clear, balanced, and lively." -- Steven Pinker, bestselling author of How the Mind Works ARE YOU AFRAID OF THE "RIGHT" RISKS? Do you worry more about radiation from nuclear power or from the sun? Are you more afraid of getting cancer than heart disease? Are you safer talking on your cell phone or using a hands-free device when you drive? Do you think global warming is a serious threat to your health? GET THE FACTS BEHIND YOUR FEARS—AND DISCOVER . . . HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? International risk expert David Ropeik takes an in-depth look at our perceptions of risk and explains the hidden factors that make us unnecessarily afraid of relatively small threats and not afraid enough of some really big ones. This read is a comprehensive, accessible, and entertaining mixture of what's been discovered about how and why we fear—too much or too little. It brings into focus the danger of The Perception Gap: when our fears don’t match the facts, and we make choices that create additional risks. This book will not decide for you what is really risky and what isn't. That's up to you. HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? will tell you how you make those decisions. Understanding how we perceive risk is the first step toward making wiser and healthier choices for ourselves as individuals and for society as a whole. TEST YOUR OWN "RISK RESPONSE" IN DOZENS OF SELF-QUIZZES!

Decision Analysis For Management Judgment

Author : Paul Goodwin
ISBN : 9781118889251
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 90. 56 MB
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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

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