the voter s guide to election polls voter s guide to election polls hardcover

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The Voter S Guide To Election Polls

Author : Michael W. Traugott
ISBN : 0742547175
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 28. 51 MB
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For the fourth presidential election running, Michael Traugott and Paul Lavrakas give voters everything they need to know about election polls and why it matters that we understand them. If statistics are worse than lies, just think what misreading the polls can do!

Encyclopedia Of Survey Research Methods

Author :
ISBN : 9781412918084
Genre :
File Size : 74. 29 MB
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Elections And Exit Polling

Author : Fritz J. Scheuren
ISBN : 9780470399446
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 66. 41 MB
Format : PDF
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"An understanding of the relationship between the product and the process in election polling is often lost. This edited volume unites ideas and researchers, with quality playing the central role." —J. Michael Brick, PhD, Director of the Survey Methods Unit, Westat, Inc. Elections and Exit Polling is a truly unique examination of the specialized surveys that are currently used to track and collect data on elections and voter preferences. Employing modern research from the past decade and a series of interviews with famed American pollster Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), this volume provides a relevant and groundbreaking look at the key statistical techniques and survey methods for measuring voter preferences worldwide. Drawing on the most current studies on pre-election and exit polling, this book outlines improvements that have developed in recent years and the results of their implementation. Coverage begins with an introduction to exit polling and a basic overview of its history, structure, limitations, and applications. Subsequent chapters focus on the use of exit polling in the United States election cycles from 2000–2006 and the problems that were encountered by both pollsters and the everyday voter, such as how to validate official vote count, confidentiality, new voting methods, and continuing data quality concerns. The text goes on to explore the presence of these issues in international politics, with examples and case studies of elections from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Finally, looking to the upcoming 2008 U.S. presidential election, the discussion concludes with predictions and recommendations on how to gather more accurate and timely polling data. Research papers from over fifty eminent practitioners in the fields of political science and survey methods are presented alongside excerpts from the editors' own interviews with Mitofsky. The editors also incorporate their own reflections throughout and conclude each chapter with a Summary Observations section that highlights notable concepts and trends. The appendix features sample questionnaires from actual exit polling scenarios and an extensive bibliography directs the reader to additional references for further study. Combining wisdom from one of the most notable names in the field along with findings from modern research and insightful recommendations for future practices, Elections and Exit Polling is an excellent supplement for political science and survey research courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a one-of-a-kind reference for pollsters, survey researchers, statisticians, and anyone with a general interest in the methods behind global elections and exit polling.

American Government And Politics Deliberation Democracy And Citizenship No Separate Policy Chapters

Author : Joseph M. Bessette
ISBN : 9781285624839
Genre : Education
File Size : 58. 77 MB
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Bessette/Pitney's AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS: DELIBERATION, DEMOCRACY, AND CITIZENSHIP is based on the idea of deliberative democracy: political systems work best when informed citizens and public officials deliberate to identify and promote the common good. Emphasizing citizenship, the text examines the way that civic culture and immigration impact students and shape the country. It offers solid historical coverage and a close look at civic responsibility. This version of the text does not include policy chapters. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Democracy How Direct

Author : Elliott Abrams
ISBN : 0742523195
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 59. 58 MB
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For more than two hundred years Americans have been debating how direct a democracy they want. Many hold that representative government too seldom reflects the people's real views, while others counter that direct popular voting will lead to excesses of passion and deficits of deliberation. In Democracy: How Direct? Elliot Abrams brings together eminent scholars to discuss the issues surrounding the dilemma of a representative versus direct democracy. This collection of previously unpublished essays begins by examining the views of our nation's founders and the historical perspectives on our democracy and then debates modern issues such as polling, public opinion, and the referendum process. With their valuable combination of historical analysis, contemporary data, and theoretical understanding, these essays will surely raise the level of the ongoing debate surrounding the nature of American democracy.

Downsizing Democracy

Author : Matthew A. Crenson
ISBN : 0801878861
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 73. 55 MB
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In Downsizing Democracy, Matthew A. Crenson and Benjamin Ginsberg describe how the once powerful idea of a collective citizenry has given way to a concept of personal, autonomous democracy. Today, political change is effected through litigation, lobbying, and term limits, rather than active participation in the political process, resulting in narrow special interest groups dominating state and federal decision-making. At a time when an American's investment in the democratic process has largely been reduced to an annual contribution to a political party or organization, Downsizing Democracy offers a critical reassessment of American democracy.

Sample Surveys Design Methods And Applications

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ISBN : 0080932215
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 32. 28 MB
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This new handbook contains the most comprehensive account of sample surveys theory and practice to date. It is a second volume on sample surveys, with the goal of updating and extending the sampling volume published as volume 6 of the Handbook of Statistics in 1988. The present handbook is divided into two volumes (29A and 29B), with a total of 41 chapters, covering current developments in almost every aspect of sample surveys, with references to important contributions and available software. It can serve as a self contained guide to researchers and practitioners, with appropriate balance between theory and real life applications. Each of the two volumes is divided into three parts, with each part preceded by an introduction, summarizing the main developments in the areas covered in that part. Volume 29A deals with methods of sample selection and data processing, with the later including editing and imputation, handling of outliers and measurement errors, and methods of disclosure control. The volume contains also a large variety of applications in specialized areas such as household and business surveys, marketing research, opinion polls and censuses. Volume 29B is concerned with inference, distinguishing between design-based and model-based methods and focusing on specific problems such as small area estimation, analysis of longitudinal data, categorical data analysis and inference on distribution functions. The volume contains also chapters dealing with case-control studies, asymptotic properties of estimators and decision theoretic aspects. Comprehensive account of recent developments in sample survey theory and practice Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications Comprehensive bibliography

The Sage Handbook Of Public Opinion Research

Author : Wolfgang Donsbach
ISBN : 9781446206515
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 69. 6 MB
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'Some of the most experienced and thoughtful research experts in the world have contributed to this comprehensive Handbook, which should have a place on every serious survey researcher's bookshelf' - Sir Robert Worcester, Founder of MORI and President of WAPOR '82-'84. 'This is the book I have been waiting for. It not only reflects the state of the art, but will most likely also shape public opinion on public opinion research' - Olof Petersson, Professor of political science, SNS, Stockholm, Sweden 'The Handbook of Public Opinion Research is very authoritative, well organized, and sensitive to key issues in opinion research around the world. It will be my first choice as a general reference book for orienting users and training producers of opinion polls in Southeast Asia' - Mahar K. Mangahas, Ph.D., President of Social Weather Stations, Philippines (www.sws.org.ph) 'This is the most comprehensive book on public opinion research to date' - Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Secretary-Treasurer, World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR); Director of Public Opinion Programme, The University of Hong Kong Public opinion theory and research are becoming increasingly significant in modern societies as people's attitudes and behaviours become ever more volatile and opinion poll data becomes ever more readily available. This major new Handbook is the first to bring together into one volume the whole field of public opinion theory, research methodology, and the political and social embeddedness of polls in modern societies. It comprehensively maps out the state-of-the-art in contemporary scholarship on these topics. With over fifty chapters written by distinguished international researchers, both academic and from the commercial sector, this Handbook is designed to: - give the reader an overview of the most important concepts included in and surrounding the term 'public opinion' and its application in modern social research - present the basic empirical concepts for assessing public opinion and opinion changes in society - provide an overview of the social, political and legal status of public opinion research, how it is perceived by the public and by journalists, and how it is used by governments - offer a review of the role and use of surveys for selected special fields of application, ranging from their use in legal cases to the use of polls in marketing and campaigns. The Handbook of Public Opinion Research provides an indispensable resource for both practitioners and students alike.

Proving Election Fraud

Author : Richard Charnin
ISBN : 9781452006666
Genre : History
File Size : 89. 64 MB
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In 2004, John Kerry appeared to be a clear winner based on the exit polls. But the recorded vote counts deviated sharply from the polls and were too one-sided to attribute to mere chance. The political pundits claimed the polls “behaved badly”, calling the three million Bush margin a “mandate”. They failed to report the impossible late adjustments made to the National, Florida and Ohio exit polls that were necessary to force them to match the recorded vote. Spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers analyzed the statistical anomalies. Online election forums were aflame with debates about state and national pre-election and exit polls, Bush approval ratings, margins of error, non-response, past vote recall, correlation between vote swing from 2000 and the exit poll shift, the counter-intuitive Bush gain over his 2000 vote share in urban locations compared to the decline in rural areas (the "Urban Legend"). But the “Smoking Gun” was the Final National Exit Poll, which indicated that there were four million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004. This “phantom voter” anomaly has never been discussed by pundits in the media or political scientists in academia, even though similar anomalies occurred in 1988, 1992 and 2008. The media pundits still claim that the recorded vote is correct (and the exit polls wrong) despite millions of uncounted votes in every election. This book is a comprehensive resource for analyzing presidential elections from 1968 to 2008, including the 2006 midterms. It is written for readers of virtually all backgrounds. The only requirement is an inquisitive, open mind. The True Vote is estimated using basic statistical modeling that is for some reason avoided in the media and academia. Internet links to several election analysis spreadsheet models are provided in the book and are free to download.

Votes Of Confidence

Author : Jeff Fleischer
ISBN : 9781942186243
Genre : Young Adult Nonfiction
File Size : 76. 29 MB
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With 2016 promising to be an interesting and hotly contested election year, Votes of Confidence offers young readers an essential guide to the past, present, and future of American elections.

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