understanding uncertainty wiley series in probability and statistics

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Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
ISBN : 9781118650233
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 44. 16 MB
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Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty

Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
ISBN : 9780470695142
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 52. 48 MB
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"This volume addresses a concern of very high relevance and growing interest for large industries or environmentalists: risk and uncertainty in complex systems. It gives new insight on the peculiar mathematical challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis, focusing on implementing decision theory choices related to risk and uncertainty analysis through statistical estimation and computation, in the presence of physical modeling and risk analysis. The result will lead statisticians and associated professionals to formulate and solve new challenges at the frontier between statistical modeling, physics, scientific computing, and risk analysis"--

Foundations Of Risk Analysis

Author : Terje Aven
ISBN : 9781119945789
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 31 MB
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Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Spatial And Spatio Temporal Bayesian Models With R Inla

Author : Marta Blangiardo
ISBN : 9781118950210
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 48. 74 MB
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Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Models with R-INLA provides a much needed, practically oriented & innovative presentation of the combination of Bayesian methodology and spatial statistics. The authors combine an introduction to Bayesian theory and methodology with a focus on the spatial and spatio­-temporal models used within the Bayesian framework and a series of practical examples which allow the reader to link the statistical theory presented to real data problems. The numerous examples from the fields of epidemiology, biostatistics and social science all are coded in the R package R-INLA, which has proven to be a valid alternative to the commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations

Uncertainty In Risk Assessment

Author : Terje Aven
ISBN : 9781118763063
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 54. 96 MB
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Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Statistical Methods And Applications From A Historical Perspective

Author : Fabio Crescenzi
ISBN : 9783319055527
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 64. 89 MB
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​The book showcases a selection of peer-reviewed papers, the preliminary versions of which were presented at a conference held 11-13 June 2011 in Bologna and organized jointly by the Italian Statistical Society (SIS), the Institute national Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and the Bank of Italy. The theme of the conference was "Statistics in the 150 years of the Unification of Italy." The celebration of the anniversary of Italian unification provided the opportunity to examine and discuss the methodological aspects and applications from a historical perspective and both from a national and international point of view. The critical discussion on the issues of the past has made it possible to focus on recent advances, considering the studies of socio-economic and demographic changes in European countries.

Principles Of Uncertainty

Author : Joseph B. Kadane
ISBN : 9781439861615
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 42. 17 MB
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An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics – the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discussion of maximization of expected utility The basics of Markov Chain Monte Carlo computing techniques Problems involving more than one decision-maker Written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples, Principles of Uncertainty introduces the most compelling parts of mathematics, computing, and philosophy as they bear on statistics. Although many books present the computation of a variety of statistics and algorithms while barely skimming the philosophical ramifications of subjective probability, this book takes a different tack. By addressing how to think about uncertainty, this book gives readers the intuition and understanding required to choose a particular method for a particular purpose.

Advanced Topics In Forensic Dna Typing Interpretation

Author : John M. Butler
ISBN : 9780124058545
Genre : Social Science
File Size : 55. 2 MB
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Advanced Topics in Forensic DNA Typing: Interpretation builds upon the previous two editions of John Butler’s internationally acclaimed Forensic DNA Typing textbook with forensic DNA analysts as its primary audience. Intended as a third-edition companion to the Fundamentals of Forensic DNA Typing volume published in 2010 and Advanced Topics in Forensic DNA Typing: Methodology published in 2012, this book contains 16 chapters with 4 appendices providing up-to-date coverage of essential topics in this important field. Over 80 % of the content of this book is new compared to previous editions. Provides forensic DNA analysts coverage of the crucial topic of DNA mixture interpretation and statistical analysis of DNA evidence Worked mixture examples illustrate the impact of different statistical approaches for reporting results Includes allele frequencies for 24 commonly used autosomal STR loci, the revised Quality Assurance Standards which went into effect September 2011

Measuring Statistical Evidence Using Relative Belief

Author : Michael Evans
ISBN : 9781482242805
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 39. 96 MB
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A Sound Basis for the Theory of Statistical Inference Measuring Statistical Evidence Using Relative Belief provides an overview of recent work on developing a theory of statistical inference based on measuring statistical evidence. It shows that being explicit about how to measure statistical evidence allows you to answer the basic question of when a statistical analysis is correct. The book attempts to establish a gold standard for how a statistical analysis should proceed. It first introduces basic features of the overall approach, such as the roles of subjectivity, objectivity, infinity, and utility in statistical analyses. It next discusses the meaning of probability and the various positions taken on probability. The author then focuses on the definition of statistical evidence and how it should be measured. He presents a method for measuring statistical evidence and develops a theory of inference based on this method. He also discusses how statisticians should choose the ingredients for a statistical problem and how these choices are to be checked for their relevance in an application.

Statistical Analysis In Forensic Science

Author : Grzegorz Zadora
ISBN : 9781118763186
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 75. 33 MB
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A practical guide for determining the evidential value of physicochemical data Microtraces of various materials (e.g. glass, paint, fibres, and petroleum products) are routinely subjected to physicochemical examination by forensic experts, whose role is to evaluate such physicochemical data in the context of the prosecution and defence propositions. Such examinations return various kinds of information, including quantitative data. From the forensic point of view, the most suitable way to evaluate evidence is the likelihood ratio. This book provides a collection of recent approaches to the determination of likelihood ratios and describes suitable software, with documentation and examples of their use in practice. The statistical computing and graphics software environment R, pre-computed Bayesian networks using Hugin Researcher and a new package, calcuLatoR, for the computation of likelihood ratios are all explored. Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science will provide an invaluable practical guide for forensic experts and practitioners, forensic statisticians, analytical chemists, and chemometricians. Key features include: Description of the physicochemical analysis of forensic trace evidence. Detailed description of likelihood ratio models for determining the evidential value of multivariate physicochemical data. Detailed description of methods, such as empirical cross-entropy plots, for assessing the performance of likelihood ratio-based methods for evidence evaluation. Routines written using the open-source R software, as well as Hugin Researcher and calcuLatoR. Practical examples and recommendations for the use of all these methods in practice.

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